Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent oil price forecast for this year and 2026 on lower commercial inventories in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), leading to a tighter supply. “We have nudged up our 2025 and 2026 average Brent forecasts to $78 (versus $76 previously) and $73 (versus $71 prior), respectively, and now look for an $80 peak in April-May 2025” Goldman said in a note dated Thursday.
The forecast for OECD commercial stocks in 2025-2026 has been lowered, primarily due to smaller than expected oil supplies from non-OPEC countries excluding the U.S., which reduced the current OECD stock estimate by 48 million barrels per day, the Wall Street bank said.
Goldman Sachs said that Brent could temporarily rise to $93 a barrel in a scenario where sanctioned supply falls by 1 million barrels per day continuously for Iran and temporarily for Russia.
Earlier this month, former U.S. President Joe Biden imposed the broadest package of sanctions targeting Russia’s oil and gas revenues, in an effort to give Kyiv and Donald Trump’s administration leverage to reach a deal for peace in Ukraine.
However, the bank said that Brent prices could decline to the low $60s in 2026 in a 10% universal tariff scenario.
Trump has vowed universal tariffs of 10% on all U.S. imports. On Thursday, the new president said he would soon decide whether to exclude Canadian and Mexican oil imports from the 25% tariffs that he has vowed to impose on the countries’ products on Saturday.
Brent crude prices were trading around $77 a barrel on Friday.
(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia Cheema)