Barclays on Friday lowered its 2025 Brent oil price forecast by $9 per barrel to $74 per barrel, citing a softer demand outlook amid elevated economic uncertainty.
Brent crude futures were trading around $70 a barrel on Friday, after settling 1.5% lower in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at around $67 a barrel.
“We turn neutral on oil prices relative to the curve and consensus, as we revise down our 2025 demand outlook 510,000 barrels per day due to soft high​-​frequency indicators and elevated economic uncertainty,” analysts at Barclays said in a note.
“However, we do not turn bearish relative to the curve, as inventories are low and still declining, and risks to the supply outlook are also skewed to the downside, due to price-sensitive producers pulling back and geopolitical tensions,” it said.
The International Energy Agency warned on Thursday that global oil supply could exceed demand by around 600,000 barrels per day this year, due to growth led by the U.S. and weaker-than-expected global demand.
Barclays, which expects U.S. crude output to rise by 200,000 barrels per day by the end of the fourth quarter from the year-earlier period, also lowered its oil demand outlook sharply and now expects growth of 900,000 barrels per day for the full year.
(Reporting by Brijesh Patel and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao)