The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday forecast that Alaska’s annual crude oil production will increase in 2026, a first since 2017 and, if realized, the largest since 2002.
The agency in its March 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook report forecasts Alaska’s crude production to rise by “16,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2026 to 438,000 bbl/d after remaining relatively flat in 2025.”
“Two new oil developments in Alaska, the Nuna and Pikka projects, are expected to boost crude oil production in the state after decades of declines,” the EIA said in a note.
ConocoPhillips-owned Nuna project’s 29 wells are expected to produce a combined 20,000 b/d of oil at its peak, while Santos and Repsol, which jointly own the Pikka project, plan to produce 80,000 b/d from 45 wells, at the project’s peak.
“As of December 2024, 22% of the wells for the Nuna and Pikka projects have been drilled, according to company reports… the companies plan to drill an additional 58 wells by 2028, which would support relatively high rig activity.” the agency said.
The EIA also forecast “annual crude oil production in Alaska to average 422,000 bbl/d in 2025, an annual increase of 1,000 bbl/d, compared with the previous five-year average annual decline of 9,000 bbl/d.”
(Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Leslie Adler)