China escalated the global trade conflict on Friday by imposing an additional 34% tariff on U.S. goods, following President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs earlier this week.
Crude prices, already under pressure from Trump’s tariffs and an anticipated increase in OPEC+ production in May, plummeted by 8% on Friday, heading towards their lowest close since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021.
Below are comments from analysts and brokerages on the impact of China’s retaliatory tariffs on oil prices, as well as their predictions on where the downward trend may bottom out.
TAMAS VARGA, ANALYST, OIL BROKER PVM
“The trade war escalated, recession fears rise and consequently oil demand growth is to take a sizeable hit. The fact that U.S. energy imports are exempted, and OPEC+ produced a bombshell by re-adding more oil in May than originally planned pours fuel to the bear’s fire. Volatility will persist, risk is off, and currently it is impossible to foretell when appetite for oil and equities will return.
“The bottom is more time than price sensitive, so when all the panic selling is done and countermeasures are announced then we will see some upside correction.”
BJARNE SCHIELDROP, CHIEF COMMODITIES ANALYST AT SEB
“What really took out everything is China implementing counter measures on tariffs. Now we are suddenly in the escalating tit-for-tat situation for tariffs. This is the first very explicit escalation from China, they are not backing down, they are upping the game.
“If we have a recession, then for sure we will have a surplus [in the oil market], OPEC+ might have to cut more.”
JORGE MONTEPEQUE, MANAGING DIRECTOR AT ONYX CAPITAL GROUP
“The Chinese tariff announcement reaffirms that effectively U.S./China trade seizes up. 50s is not out of the question,” he said, referring to the oil price outlook.
OLE HANSEN, HEAD OF COMMODITY STRATEGY AT SAXO BANK
“China’s aggressive countermove to U.S. tariffs all but confirms we are heading towards a global trade war, a war that has no winners and which will hurt economic growth and with that demand for key commodities such as crude oil and refined products.
“At this stage we have not only entered a demand destruction phase, but also supply destruction from high-cost producers which over time will help cushion the fall.”
(Reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru, Anna Hirtenstein in London, and Yousef Saba in Dubai, editing by Alex Lawler and)