Goldman Sachs revised down its annual average price forecasts again for Brent and WTI crude in 2026, citing increased recession risks and the possibility of higher-than-expected OPEC+ supply.
In a note dated April 6, the bank cut its 2026 average price forecast by $4 for Brent to $58 a barrel and WTI to $55.
The Wall Street brokerage initially trimmed on Friday its 2026 average price forecast for Brent to $62 and for WTI to $59, and warned that the new estimates could be further reduced.
Goldman Sachs now expects oil demand to grow by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, down from its previous forecast of 600,000 bpd, and to increase by 400,000 bpd in 2026.
The bank attributes the reduction in demand growth to the negative influence of a weaker GDP, which outweighs support from a weaker dollar and lower oil prices.
“Oil prices would likely exceed our forecast if the Administration were to reverse tariffs sharply and deliver a reassuring message to markets, consumers, and businesses,” Goldman said.
Oil prices slid on Monday, deepening last week’s losses, as escalating trade tensions between the United States and China stoked fears of a recession that would reduce demand for crude.
China on Friday struck back at the U.S tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump with a slew of counter-measures including extra levies of 34% on all U.S. goods and export curbs on some rare-earths.
Brent crude was trading around $63.87 a barrel, as of 0321 GMT on Friday, while WTI was at $60.38.
“While the uncertainty around compliance and OPEC8+ production is very large, we still assume that the four months of OPEC8+ crude increases will total around 0.7-0.8 mb/d,” the bank added.
(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Tom Hogue and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)