U.S. natural gas output and demand will both rise to record highs in 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Thursday.
EIA projected dry gas production will rise from 103.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2024 to 105.3 bcfd in 2025 and 107.1 bcfd in 2026. That compares with a record 103.6 bcfd in 2023.
The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would rise from a record 90.5 bcfd in 2024 to 91.2 bcfd in 2025 before easing back to 90.5 bcfd in 2026.
The April projections for 2025 were higher than EIA’s 105.2 bcfd supply forecast in March, but lower than the agency’s 92.0 bcfd demand forecast in March.
The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would reach 15.2 bcfd in 2025 and 16.4 bcfd in 2026, up from a record 11.9 bcfd in 2024.
As renewable sources of power displace coal-fired plants, the agency projected U.S. coal production would fall from 512.1 million short tons in 2024, the lowest since 1964, to 489.3 million tons in 2025, the lowest since 1963, and 466.0 million tons in 2026, the lowest since 1962.
EIA projected carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels would rise from a four-year low of 4.772 billion metric tons in 2024 to 4.812 billion metric tons in 2025 as coal and gas use increases, before easing to 4.741 billion metric tons in 2026 as coal and gas use declines.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio)