U.S. oil production will peak at 14 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2027 and maintain that level through the end of the decade, before rapidly declining, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday.
Oil output from the world’s largest producer will fall to about 11.3 million bpd in 2050, from around 13.7 million bpd this year, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy said in its Annual Energy Outlook.
Meanwhile, the post-pandemic recovery in U.S. oil demand will end next year, the forecasts showed. Total product supplied, the EIA’s measure of demand, will edge up from 20.51 million bpd this year to 20.52 million bpd next year, EIA data showed.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2019, U.S. oil consumption averaged 20.54 million bpd. The all-time record high was in 2005 at 20.80 million bpd.
The EIA last week lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next, citing potentially weaker economic activity amidst an intensifying U.S. trade war with China, and Washington’s decision to tariff most imports.
The agency also sharply cut its oil price forecasts and reduced its outlook for U.S. oil production growth for 2025 and 2026 as a result of the demand uncertainty.
(Reporting by Shariq Khan, Stephanie Kelly and Scott DiSavino in New York Editing by Marguerita Choy)