Goldman Sachs anticipates the eight country OPEC+ oil group will implement a final 0.41 million barrels per day (mb/d) production increase in August, the bank said in a note dated Sunday.
“Relatively tight spot oil fundamentals, beats in hard global activity data, and seasonal summer support to oil demand suggest that the expected demand slowdown is unlikely to be sharp enough to stop raising production when deciding on August production levels on July 6th,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.
OPEC+, the world’s largest group of oil producers, stuck to its guns on Saturday with another big increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July as it looks to wrestle back market share and punish over-producers.
The decision likely reflects relatively tight spot fundamentals, a resilient global economy, and an ongoing shift toward a long-term equilibrium aimed at normalizing spare capacity, supporting internal cohesion, and disciplining U.S. shale production, Goldman Sachs noted.
Oil prices rebounded more than $1 a barrel in early Asian trade on Monday after OPEC+ decided to increase output in July by the same amount as it did in each of the prior two months, in line with market expectation.
Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to maintain flat production levels from September, citing slowing global growth in third quarter and new large-scale non-OPEC projects ramping up.
Goldman maintained its cautious oil price forecast, projecting Brent crude to average $60 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) $56 per barrel for the remainder of 2025. For 2026, it sees Brent at $56 and WTI at $52 per barrel.
The forecast reflects expected supply growth outside of U.S. shale will drive surpluses of 1 mbpd in 2025 and 1.5 mbpd in 2026.
The bank mainted its oil price forecast stating a moderate upgrade to demand offsets the increase in OPEC+ supply.
Goldman Sachs further cited an upward revision of historical International Energy Agency (IEA) Africa demand estimates, stronger-than-expected European demand data, and a softer electric vehicle (EV) outlook in Western markets as contributing factors.
(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Kim Coghill and Lincoln Feast.)