U.S. natural gas output and demand will both rise to record highs in 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.
EIA projected dry gas production will rise from 103.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2024 to 105.9 bcfd in 2025 and 106.4 bcfd in 2026. That compares with a record 103.6 bcfd in 2023.
The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would rise from a record 90.5 bcfd in 2024 to 91.3 bcfd in 2025 before easing back to 91.1 bcfd in 2026.
The June projections for 2025 were higher than EIA’s 104.9 bcfd supply forecast in May, and unchanged from the agency’s 91.3 bcfd demand forecast in May.
The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would reach 14.6 bcfd in 2025 and 16.0 bcfd in 2026, up from a record 11.9 bcfd in 2024.
As renewable sources of power displace coal-fired plants, the agency projected U.S. coal production would fall from 512.1 million short tons in 2024, the lowest since 1964, to 511.9 million tons in 2025, still the lowest since 1964, and 480.4 million tons in 2026, the lowest since 1963.
EIA projected carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels would rise from a four-year low of 4.777 billion metric tons in 2024 to 4.832 billion metric tons in 2025 as oil, coal and gas use increases, before easing to 4.769 billion metric tons in 2026 as oil, coal and gas use declines.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci)