JP Morgan downplayed geopolitical concerns on Thursday and maintained its base case forecast for oil prices to stay in the low-to-mid $60s through 2025 and $60 in 2026, but said certain worst-case scenarios could send prices surging to double those levels.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday the United States was moving personnel out of the Middle East because it “could be a dangerous place”. He also said the U.S. would not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon. Iran has said its nuclear activity is peaceful.
Increased tension with Iran has raised the prospect of disruption to oil supplies, with both sides set to meet on Sunday.
The geopolitical risk premium is already at least partially reflected in current oil prices, which are just under $70, trading about $4 higher than their estimated fair value of $66 for June, JP Morgan said in a Thursday note.
However, the analysts drew attention to certain worst-case scenarios, where the impact on supply could potentially extend beyond a 2.1 million barrels per day reduction in Iranian oil exports. Attention is focused on the risk that a broader Middle East conflict could close the Strait of Hormuz, or provoke retaliatory responses from major oil producing countries in the region.
“Under this severe outcome, we estimate oil prices could surge to the $120-130/bbl range,” they said.
Brent crude futures were trading near $68.76 per barrel on Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $67.14 per barrel.
If nuclear negotiations fail and conflict arises with the United States, Iran will strike American bases in the region, Iranian Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said on Wednesday, days ahead of a planned sixth round of Iran-U.S. nuclear talks.
The U.N. nuclear watchdog’s board of governors declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations on Thursday and Tehran announced counter-measures, as tensions rose in the Middle East.
(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Kavya Balaraman in Bengaluru; editing by Barbara Lewis and Susan Fenton)