Goldman Sachs said it has incorporated a higher geopolitical risk premium into its adjusted summer 2025 oil price outlook but continues to assume no disruptions to Middle East oil supply after Israel launched an attack on Iran.
The bank maintains its forecast that robust supply growth outside of U.S. shale will push Brent and WTI prices down to $59 and $55 per barrel, respectively, by the fourth quarter of 2025, and to $56 and $52 in 2026.
The bank’s base case is that the geopolitical risk premium will decline if oil supply is unaffected.
However, in a scenario where potential damage to Iran’s export infrastructure temporarily reduces supply by 1.75 million barrels per day and extra OPEC+ production makes up half of the peak Iranian shortfall, Brent could touch just over $90 per barrel before falling back to the $60s in 2026, it said.
“Oil prices could rise even more sharply in extreme tail scenarios, where broader regional oil production or shipping is negatively affected,” the bank added.
Brent crude futures were trading near $74.74 per barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $73.65 per barrel.
(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Kavya Balaraman in Bengaluru; Editing by Joe Bavier)