U.S. natural gas futures slipped on Friday but headed for its best week in more than a month, steered by forecasts for hotter weather that should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming.
Gas futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2 cents, or 0.5%, to $3.97 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), after hitting its highest level since April earlier in the session at $4.148. Prices were up over 10% so far for the week.
“It’s hot hot hot. Not only are temperatures heating up in the United States with a major heat wave, the tensions between Israel and Iran are still hot,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
“With temperatures expected to reach triple digits in major cities from Chicago to the East Coast could lead to a record-breaking demand for natural gas as air conditioners will be humming.”
On the geopolitical front, a week into its campaign, Israel said it had struck dozens of military targets overnight, including missile production sites, a research body involved in nuclear weapons development in Tehran and military facilities in western and central Iran.
The Iran-Israel conflict has intensified supply concerns in the global gas market, fueled by fears over the secure passage of LNG cargo through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategically significant chokepoints in the global energy supply chain.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states stood at 105.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, which remains below the monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in March due primarily to normal spring maintenance earlier in the month.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms pulled 95 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended June 13. That was a little smaller than the 98-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with an increase of 72 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2020-2024) average of 72 bcf for this time of year.
“This week’s EIA report indicated a smaller storage injection than we had expected… But while conceding that such a supply will continue to deter hedge selling interest, we also feel that the storage excess could be easily erased as the summer proceeds if warmer than normal temperatures extend well into next month and if some hurricane premium is required,” Ritterbush said in a note.
Meanwhile, Freeport LNG has requested a 40-month extension from federal regulators to complete the long-delayed Train 4 expansion at its Texas export facility, aiming to bring the project online by December 1, 2031, according to a filing.
(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru)