Options markets suggest the probability of a disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz is just 4% following the Iran-Israel ceasefire, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note on Thursday.
Fears that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities sent Brent crude futures to a high of $81.40 on Monday, but concerns eased in the wake of the truce declared the next day, sending crude back below $68.
The sharp drop in the geopolitical risk premium likely reflected traders’ recent experiences with major geopolitical shocks without significant oil disruptions, Iran’s restrained response, strong U.S. and China incentives to avoid large disruptions, and the likely shift to large inventory builds from the fall, Goldman analysts said.
Options markets see a 60% chance that Brent will stay in the $60s in three months and a 28% probability they would exceed $70, Goldman analysts said.
Were oil flows to be disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz, Brent would climb to $90 a barrel, they said.
(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Sonali Paul)