Goldman Sachs said it expects a group of eight OPEC+ members to lift oil production quotas by 550,000 barrels per day in September, which would complete the unwinding of 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts, as they look to normalize spare capacity amid resilient global oil demand.
The forecast published on Sunday came after OPEC+ agreed on Saturday to increase production by 548,000 bpd in August, further accelerating output at its first meeting since oil prices spiked and retreated following Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran.
“Saturday’s announcement to accelerate supply hikes increases our confidence that the shift, which we started flagging last summer, to a more long-run equilibrium focused on normalizing spare capacity and market share, supporting internal cohesion, and strategically disciplining US shale supply, is continuing,” Goldman said.
The bank expects crude production from the eight members of OPEC+, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, to rise by 1.67 million bpd between March and September, reaching 33.2 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia driving more than 60% of the increase.
The eight countries include Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Algeria.
Goldman maintained its Brent crude price forecast at $59 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2025 and $56 per barrel for 2026, citing offsetting factors such as supply misses relative to its expectations, most notably in Russia, and reduced spare capacity supporting long-dated oil prices.
Goldman also highlighted upside risks to oil demand, forecasting global consumption to rise by 600,000 bpd in 2025 and 1 million bpd in 2026, driven by robust Chinese oil demand, resilient global economic activity and further U.S. dollar depreciation.
While the bank sees balanced risks for its 2025 price forecast, it views downside risks for 2026, citing the potential unwinding of the second post-pandemic round of 1.65 million bpd of cuts by OPEC+ and elevated U.S. recession probabilities, which its economists estimate at 30%.
(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Jamie Freed)