U.S. natural gas output and demand will both rise to record highs in 2025 before sliding in 2026, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.
EIA projected dry gas production will rise from 103.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2024 to 106.4 bcfd in 2025 before sliding to 106.1 bcfd in 2026. That compares with a record 103.6 bcfd in 2023.
The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would rise from a record 90.5 bcfd in 2024 to 91.4 bcfd in 2025 before easing back to 91.2 bcfd in 2026.
The August supply projection for 2025 was higher than EIA’s 105.9 bcfd forecast in July, while the agency’s demand forecast was unchanged at 91.4 bcfd, the same as July.
The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would reach 14.7 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026, up from a record 11.9 bcfd in 2024.
With power generators expected to burn more coal this year than in 2024, the EIA projected U.S. coal production would rise from 512.1 million short tons in 2024, the lowest since 1964, to 521.3 million tons in 2025 before falling to 490.9 million tons in 2026, the lowest since 1963.
EIA projected carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels would rise from a four-year low of 4.778 billion metric tons in 2024 to 4.856 billion metric tons in 2025 as oil, coal and gas use increases, before easing to 4.801 billion metric tons in 2026 as oil, coal and gas use declines.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Richard Chang)