Eight OPEC+ countries will likely raise oil output on Sunday but probably add less oil from October than in recent months as global demand might be slowing with the end of the driving season, OPEC+ sources said on Saturday.
OPEC+ has reversed its strategy of output cuts from April and has already raised quotas by about 2.5 million barrels per day, about 2.4% of world demand, to boost market share and under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to lower oil prices.
But those increases have failed to significantly dent oil prices, which are trading near $66 a barrel supported by Western sanctions on Russia and Iran, encouraging further production gains in rivals such as the United States.
Another output boost would mean OPEC+, which pumps about half of the world’s oil, would be starting to unwind a second layer of cuts of about 1.65 million bpd, more than a year ahead of schedule.
Talks are focusing on unwinding that whole cut in gradual monthly increments, two sources said on Saturday. Eight OPEC+ countries are to hold an online meeting on Sunday at 1230 GMT, at which the focus is expected to be on October output.
The countries may raise output by 135,000 bpd for October, an OPEC+ source said, while another said October’s hike could be closer to 200,000-350,000 bpd.
At their last meeting in August, the eight members raised production by 547,000 bpd for September, completing a total increase in output for the year of 2.5 mln bpd. That included a 300,000 bpd additional production allocation for the UAE.
OPEC headquarters and authorities in Saudi Arabia did not respond to requests for comment made on Wednesday.
OPEC+ includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies.
Brent crude futures settled at $65.50 a barrel on Friday, down 2.2%, pressured by a weak U.S. jobs report and expectations of an OPEC+ output hike. This is still up from a 2025 low of near $58 in April.
As well as sanctions, the OPEC+ hikes falling short of the pledged amounts have also supported prices, analysts have said.
Until April, OPEC+ had been curtailing production for several years to support oil prices.
The next output cut layer of 1.65 million bpd is in place until the end of 2026, as is another 2 million bpd of cuts by the whole group.
(Reporting by Olesya Astakhova, Alex Lawler, Ahmad Ghaddar and Dmitry Zhdannikov, editing by Alexandra Hudson)