Citi analysts on Friday forecast Brent crude oil prices would fall to $60 per barrel by year-end and average $62 per barrel between the second and fourth quarters of 2026, citing OPEC+ production increases and China’s stockpiling.
The bank revised its global liquids balance outlook after OPEC+ announced plans to unwind an additional 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) of voluntary cuts starting in October 2025.
Citi said that could lead to stock builds of 1.1 mb/d in 2025 and 2.1 mb/d in 2026, adding slack to an already-loosening global supply.
By end-2026, Citi estimates global liquids inventories could climb to 10.9 billion barrels, equivalent to 103 days of forward demand cover.
Under a bear case scenario, Citi assigned a 30% probability of Brent prices falling below $60 per barrel, potentially to $50, on weaker global demand, faster growth in non-OPEC supply, and lower compliance among OPEC+ members.
Its bullish scenario, with a 10% probability, could push Brent prices above $75 on increased geopolitical disruption.
Global oil demand is expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d in 2025 and 1 mb/d in 2026, though trade disputes could trim diesel consumption by as much as 0.3 mb/d. Citi reaffirmed its Brent target of $60 per barrel over the next 6 to 12 months.
Brent crude futures were trading at $66.93 a barrel by 1024 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures at $62.92.
(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)