World oil supply is expected to match demand next year in a reflection of the wider OPEC+ group’s production increases, an OPEC report showed on Wednesday, marking a further shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit in 2026.
OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies, has raised its output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day – or around 2.7% of global supply – since April.
It plans to pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026 amid widespread predictions of an oversupply.
In a monthly report on Wednesday, OPEC said the world economy’s growth trend remained firm.
While demand is seen as steady, OPEC said in the report that OPEC+ in October cut output by 73,000 bpd to 43.02 million bpd, despite the group’s output hike agreement for the month, led by a drop in Kazakhstan.
Expected demand for OPEC+ crude at 43.0 million bpd in 2026 implies that the world market will see a marginal surplus of 20,000 bpd if the wider group keeps pumping at October’s rate, according to a Reuters calculation based on the report.
Last month’s report had projected a deficit of 50,000 bpd, and the September report pointed to a shortfall of 700,000 bpd.
(Reporting by Alex Lawler, editing by Jane Merriman)