U.S. natural gas futures rose to their highest level since March on Thursday, supported by stronger liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and forecasts for colder-than-normal weather in December.
Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange moved 10.8 cents higher, or 2.4%, to $4.64 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 11:55 a.m. EST (1655 GMT). The contract hit its highest level since March 10 earlier in the session.
“The LNG export market is acting as a strong demand driver,” said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy trading at StoneX Financial.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 17.8 bcfd in November, up from a record 16.7 bcfd in October, and those flows are on track to increase further in coming months as Venture Global’s Plaquemines plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi plant in Texas continue to ramp up production, according to LSEG data.
By December, according to some projections, it is going to get colder than normal, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group.
Financial company LSEG expects average gas demand across the Lower 48 U.S. states, including exports, to rise to 119.2 bcfd this week from 108.6 bcfd the previous week.
LSEG estimated 253 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly higher than the 228 estimated on Tuesday. HDDs, which measure the number of degrees a day’s average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius), are used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses.
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.0 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.
Record output this year has allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There was about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year.
Meanwhile, ADNOC Gas reported an 8% rise in its third-quarter net profit to $1.34 billion on Thursday, its highest ever for the period, as strong domestic demand and improved margins offset a weaker oil price environment.
Elsewhere, Dutch and British gas prices were slightly down on Thursday, trading in a narrow range amid weak demand due to warm weather, which is expected to become colder over the coming week.
Week ended Nov 7 Week ended Oct 31 Year ago Nov 7 Five-year average
Forecast Actual Nov 7 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +33 +33 +45 +25 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,948 3,915 3,966 3,788 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average +4.2% +4.3%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Last Prior Year Five-Year
Year Average 2024 Average
(2019-2023) Henry Hub 4.5 4.54 2.98 2.41 3.52 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 9.82 10.87 13.89 10.95 15.47 Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) 11.14 11.13 14.12 11.89 15.23
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year Norm 30-Year Norm U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) HDDs 253 252 216 259 259 U.S. GFS CDDs 16 15 7 9 8 U.S. GFS TDDs 269 267 223 268 267
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Last Five-Year
Year (2020-2024)
Average For
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 109.1 109.3 109.4 101.3 99.2 U.S. Imports from Canada 8.1 8.3 8.1 N/A 8.1 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Supply 117.2 117.6 117.5 N/A 107.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.7 2.6 2.6 N/A 2.9 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.2 6.3 6.5 N/A 5.7 U.S. LNG Export Feedgas 17.5 18.3 18.2 12.8 12.2 U.S. Commercial 9.1 11.6 11.5 7.9 11.0 U.S. Residential 12.4 17.2 17.5 10.4 15.7 U.S. Power Plant 29.4 31.1 30.0 34.5 30.0 U.S. Industrial 23.6 24.1 23.7 22.7 24.2 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.2 3.3 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Total U.S. Consumption 82.2 92.0 90.5 83.1 89.7 Total U.S. Demand 108.6 119.1 117.8 N/A 110.5
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at 2026 Current Day 2026 Prior Day % 2025 % of Normal 2024 2023 The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) % of Normal of Normal Actual % of Normal % of Normal
Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Apr-Sep 92 92 76 74 83 Jan-Jul 86 88 78 76 77 Oct-Sep 88 88 80 77 76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA
Week ended Nov 14 Week ended Nov 7 2024 2023 2022 Wind 14 15 11 10 11 Solar 6 7 5 4 3 Hydro 5 6 6 6 6 Other 1 1 1 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 37 36 42 41 38 Coal 17 16 16 17 21 Nuclear 20 20 19 19 19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day This Month Last Prior Year Five-Year
Year Average 2024 Average
(2019-2023) Henry Hub 3.6 NA 2.10 2.19 3.49 Transco Z6 New York 3.19 NA 1.99 1.98 3.29 PG&E Citygate 3.81 NA 3.29 3.04 5.47 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 3.11 NA 1.83 1.68 2.77 Chicago Citygate 3.39 NA 1.98 2.00 3.41 Algonquin Citygate 4.03 NA 2.70 2.88 4.27 SoCal Citygate 4.10 NA 2.55 2.47 5.92 Waha Hub 1.22 NA 0.33 0.77 2.91 AECO 1.67 NA 0.98 0.96 2.28
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day This Month Last Prior Year Five-Year
Year Average 2024 Average
(2019-2023) New England 63.98 66.39 44.71 47.35 48.44 PJM West 56.29 58.14 35.99 41.98 45.33 Mid C 41.58 NA 37.13 63.89 61.73 Palo Verde 40.33 NA 29.23 39.50 62.42 SP-15 43.74 46.00 30.01 31.30 58.87
(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru. Editing by Jane Merriman and Ed Osmond)