Brent crude oil is expected to average $65 per barrel next year, Barclays said on Thursday, while projecting a supply surplus for the year.
“We expect a 1.9 million barrels per day surplus next year, but inventories remain low and builds continue to surprise to the downside,” Barclays said in a note. It added that spare capacity is low and geopolitical tensions continue to pose asymmetric upside risks to prices.
Barclays highlighted that a potential slowdown in cyclical demand remains a key downside risk. However, given its outlook for non-OPEC+ supply, the bank noted that OPEC+ could respond to weakening fundamentals in such a scenario.
The OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies plans to pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026, amid widespread predictions of oversupply.
World oil supply will match demand closely in 2026, OPEC data published earlier in the day indicated, an outlook contrasting with projections from the International Energy Agency and others of a huge glut.
On the geopolitical front, the U.S. is preparing to intercept more ships transporting Venezuelan oil following the seizure of a tanker this week, sources familiar with the matter said.
Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled lower for the day.
(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru, Editing by Franklin Paul)