Goldman Sachs expects U.S. gas prices to be above $3.50 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the summer, it said in a note late Monday, to incentivise producers to ramp up production and meet storage targets. U.S. natural gas futures soared by a record 119% over five days to a three-year high on Monday after an Arctic blast over the weekend boosted heating demand. Production slumped to a two-year low after the extreme cold froze oil and gas wells and pipes, while gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants dropped.
“We maintain our $3.75/mmBtu Sum26 U.S. gas price forecast and see two-sided risks to our forecast coming from weather and production uncertainty,” the brokerage said. While Winter Storm Fern’s negative impact on U.S. production has matched the brokerage’s baseline, incremental gas demand has beaten expectations, and price-driven offsets have partially disappointed, it said.
Despite the temporary reduction in U.S. LNG supply, the brokerage maintained its TTF price forecasts of 38/34 EUR/MWh ($13.00/$11.70/mmBtu) for the first and second halves of 2026.
Goldman Sachs noted that the Asia-to-Europe price premium has been much weaker than expected, with Southeast Asian LNG imports falling year-on-year in recent weeks and Chinese imports remaining flat.
(Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair)