Goldman Sachs said oil prices are likely to exceed $100 per barrel next week if no signs of a solution emerge to the severe disruption in flows through the Strait of Hormuz, warning that upside risks to its base-case forecast are rapidly growing further.
The bank said it plans to revisit its oil price forecast soon if it does not see evidence supporting its assumption of a gradual normalization in Strait of Hormuz flows over the next few days.
Its current base-case Brent forecast is in the $80s for March and the high $70s for the second quarter.
“We now also think it’s likely that oil prices, especially for refined products, would exceed the 2008 and 2022 peaks, if Strait of Hormuz flows were to remain depressed throughout March,” it added.
Crude oil was set on Friday for its strongest weekly gain since the extreme volatility of the COVID-19 pandemic in spring of 2020, as conflict in the Middle East kept shipping and energy exports through the vital Strait of Hormuz halted.
Goldman Sachs currently estimates that average daily flows through the Strait of Hormuz are down 90%.
A spokesman for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards challenged U.S. President Donald Trump to deploy U.S. naval vessels to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” a dramatic escalation of his demands a week into the war he launched alongside Israel, which could make it more difficult to negotiate a swift end to hostilities.
Meanwhile, earlier in the day, Barclays said that Brent crude could potentially test $120 a barrel if the Middle East conflict persists for another couple of weeks.
(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru, Editing by Franklin Paul)