Crude futures climbed higher on Friday as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, but analysts were wary the weekend might bring surprise changes in the status of the war two weeks after it started.
Brent futures for May were up $1.59, or 1.58%, to $102.05 a barrel at 11:35 a.m. CDT (1635 GMT), heading for a weekly increase. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April gained $1.15, or 1.2%, to $96.88 a barrel, and was also set for an uptick on the week.
“We’re getting hammered by the news,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group. “We’re coming into another weekend where you could see this over by Monday. Then again, we could see the war still going on and the market will be testing highs on Sunday night.”
The U.S. issued a 30-day license for countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum products stranded at sea. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it was a step to stabilise global energy markets roiled by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
This will affect 100 million barrels of Russian crude, equal to almost a day’s worth of global output, according to Russia’s presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev.
“Russian oil was already going to buyers; this is not bringing additional barrels to the market but it does reduce some friction,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB.
“The market is starting to get very concerned that this (war) is going to last longer. The big fear is that we have severe damage to oil infrastructure, which would be a lasting loss of supply.”
OIL TO BE RELEASED FROM STOCKPILES
The announcement on Russian oil came a day after the U.S. Energy Department said Washington would release 172 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help curb skyrocketing oil prices.
That plan was coordinated with the International Energy Agency, which has agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles, including the U.S. contribution.
Fleeting relief sparked by the IEA release, however, was shattered by a re-escalation of Middle East risks, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.
Iran’s new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran would fight on, and keep the Strait of Hormuz shut as leverage against the United States and Israel.
Two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters were struck by explosives-laden Iranian boats, Iraqi security officials said on Thursday. An Iraqi official told state media the country’s oil ports have completely stopped operations.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday the United States stood to make significant money from oil prices, driven higher by the war with Iran. But stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons was far more important, he said.
Both benchmark prices surged more than 9% on Thursday and hit their highest levels since August 2022.
Goldman Sachs predicted on Friday that Brent oil would average more than $100 a barrel in March and $85 in April, as energy prices remain volatile due to the Iran war, damage to Middle East energy infrastructure and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent is better supported than WTI because Europe is more susceptible to energy security issues, while the U.S. is able to stave off its exposure due to its domestic output, said Emril Jamil, senior analyst at LSEG.
In another sign the disruptions may drag on, sources told Reuters that Iran had deployed about a dozen mines in the strait, a move that is likely to complicate the reopening of the critical waterway.
New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a statement on Thursday Iran would continue to block the Strait of Hormuz and attack neighbouring nations that host U.S. military bases.
Treasury Secretary Bessent told Sky News in an interview that the U.S. Navy, perhaps with an international coalition, would escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz when it is militarily possible.
(Reporting by Anna Hirtenstein in London. Additional reporting by Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore, Sam Li and Lewis Jackson in Beijing; Editing by Pooja Desai, Susan Fenton and Aidan Lewis)