The Iran war will have a bigger and more lasting impact on oil and gas prices than is being priced in, Eni’s finance chief Francesco Gattei said on Friday as the group raised its estimate for 2026 Brent crude prices to $83 per barrel, from $70.
Eni also lifted its forecast for Dutch TTF gas prices to 50 euros per megawatt hour, from 36 euros per MWh, as it reported first-quarter adjusted net profit of 1.3 billion euros ($1.5 billion), down from 1.4 billion euros a year earlier and below an analyst consensus forecast of 1.5 billion euros.
Although the Italian oil and gas group’s upstream business benefited from the initial fallout of the Iran war, its refining division was unable to fully capitalise on higher product prices as its plants were operating at reduced utilisation rates. Eni also said it would raise its 2025 share buyback plan to 2.8 billion euros, from the 1.5 billion euros announced on March 19, just over 2-1/2 weeks after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran.
Shares in Milan-listed Eni closed 1.14% lower, after opening up 1% following the release of its results.
MORE IMPACTFUL CRISIS
“This crisis is not just a matter of reaching a sort of ceasefire or peace, but also to restart a lot of infrastructures and production facilities that were shut down, impacted by the fire and bombing, so it will take longer,” Eni’s Chief Transition and Financial Officer Gattei said.
The conflict appeared “much more impactful than the market is probably evaluating,” he added.
Eni said the enlarged buyback was driven by the revised macroeconomic outlook and a more optimistic view on underlying cash flow generation, which Eni now sees at 13.8 billion euros this year, up from a previous estimate of 11.5 billion euros.
The war has severely disrupted global energy supplies, with the Strait of Hormuz – a conduit for about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows – effectively closed.
Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged $78.38 a barrel in the first quarter, up 24% on the previous quarter, LSEG data showed.
The benchmark front-month TTF gas price averaged 40.15 euros/MWh in the first quarter of 2026, up from 30.14 euros/MWh in the fourth quarter of 2025, ICE data showed.
PARTNERSHIP ON TRADING
Analysts cited maintenance at refining sites and continued margin pressure in Eni’s chemicals business as the main reasons for the first-quarter earnings miss.
“Heavy planned maintenance in the downstream businesses sees Eni first-quarter earnings below market expectations, albeit perhaps setting up for a better second quarter,” Citi said. Earlier this month, several European rivals said their trading divisions generated billions of dollars in profit from volatility triggered by the Iran war, helping cushion the impact of disruptions to production.
Eni’s CEO has said the group is considering a partnership with a commodity trader to develop a dedicated trading business.
“The group has started engaging with other trading players to try to combine the best of the two,” said Guido Brusco, Eni’s head of natural resources, adding that the current volatile environment could accelerate the plan.
Eni’s oil and gas production rose 9% in the quarter, supported by project ramp-ups in West Africa and Norway, start-ups in Angola and solid operational continuity, offsetting limited disruption from the Middle East.
Exploration added around 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent, with discoveries in Angola, Ivory Coast and Libya.
(Reporting by Francesca Landini, Editing by Elaine Hardcastle, Mark Potter and Alexander Smith)