Goldman Sachs said in a note on Tuesday that U.S. natural gas production is showing signs of price sensitivity as Henry Hub prices moved back above $3 per million British thermal units this week for the first time since late March.
The bank sees the ongoing signs of U.S. dry gas production price sensitivity as the most relevant, as it will impact how the market navigates an expected decline in U.S. gas balances through 2027.
According to Goldman, Haynesville production growth has slowed this year, suggesting that producers are sensitive to prices, with production declining by 200 million cubic feet per day (mmcf/d) from December 2025 levels.
“While there’s ongoing maintenance impacting production, this tends to be seasonal, hence it likely impacted last year’s early summer volumes as well,” Goldman Sachs said.
Despite this, the bank notes that the Haynesville rig count has increased significantly in the first quarter, indicating that additional wells can be brought online by the fourth quarter this year.
Furthermore, Goldman expects associated gas production from the Permian to rise significantly this winter, driven by the addition of 4.5 billion cubic feet per day of incremental pipeline capacity in the second half of 2026.
(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)