Goldman Sachs on Thursday lowered its 2027 average Brent oil price forecast to $80 a barrel, citing stronger supply growth and persistent demand weakness, even as it warned prices could swing sharply under different geopolitical scenarios.
The bank highlighted rising output from the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela and the UAE, alongside structural demand shifts, particularly in China.
“We assume that just over 10% of the demand weakness persists as China’s shift to alternatives (e.g. EVs) accelerates,” Goldman said in a note.
The bank also said it continues to expect Brent to average $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, noting that the impact of a longer disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has so far been offset by a smaller-than-expected supply shortfall.
While the Hormuz disruption initially cut Middle East liquids production sharply, Goldman said the global deficit in the second quarter was more limited, estimated at 5 to 6 million barrels per day, as weaker demand and pre-existing oversupply cushioned the shock.
“We now assume that oil exports from Gulf producers normalize by late August (vs. by late June prior), which may be achieved with a rise in Hormuz flows to 70% of pre-war levels given current redirections,” the bank said.
Goldman highlighted upside risks to prices, stating that in an adverse scenario, Brent could average just above $110 in late 2026 if export disruptions persist longer. A more severe scenario sees prices hitting $140 in 2027 if Hormuz disruptions extend through the year.
On the downside, a faster normalization in supply and weaker demand could push prices down to around $70 in late 2026 and $60 in 2027.
(Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Ed Davies)