President Donald Trump said on Thursday he wants to take over Kharg Island, Iran’s oil infrastructure hub. Analysts say the U.S. military could seize the island quickly, but the move could leave U.S. troops in great peril and prolong rather than shorten the war.
WHERE IS KHARG ISLAND AND WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?
Kharg Island sits 16 miles (26 km) from Iran’s coast in the northern end of the Gulf, about 300 miles (483 km) northwest of the Strait of Hormuz. It lies in waters deep enough to enable the docking of tankers that are too large to approach the Iranian mainland’s shallow coastal waters.
The island handled 90% of Iran’s oil exports before the war started on February 28. Seizing it would severely disrupt Iran’s energy trade and place enormous pressure on Tehran’s economy. Iran is the third largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
WHAT IS THE STATE OF PLAY?
U.S. forces carried out strikes against Kharg in March and April, and Trump said they “totally obliterated” all military targets there and said they could next target oil infrastructure. U.S. officials told Reuters at the time the administration was weighing whether to send ground forces to the island.
Kharg has not been attacked since then, though the United States has targeted oil tankers near the island as it maintains a blockade on Iranian ports.
Trump on Thursday said he would like to seize the oil hub, though he did not indicate clear plans to do so.
“My preference has always been – take Kharg Island… my preference would be that. I don’t know that America has the stomach for it,” he told Fox News.
Seizing the island might not have an immediate impact on Iran’s economy, as the country’s oil exports have already been severely curtailed by the war.
CAMERA-WIELDING DRONES
U.S. troops could likely seize the island relatively quickly, but that would not necessarily lead to a quick and decisive end to the war, experts said.
“A seizure and occupation of Kharg Island is more likely to expand and extend the war than it is to deliver any sort of decisive victory,” Ryan Brobst and Cameron McMillan of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies wrote in March.
They said U.S. troops would be exposed to missile and drone attacks, including, potentially, camera-wielding “first-person view drones” that are already used by the millions in Ukraine.
“Upon any successful strikes, the Iranian regime would be expected to release videos of those attacks online, using the graphic deaths of American service members as propaganda,” they said.
TROOPS NEED BACKUP
A former commander of the U.S. Central Command, Joseph Votel, told TWZ.com in March that while only 800 to 1,000 troops would be needed to hold Kharg Island, they would require logistical backup that would need protection as well.
Votel said the troops would be very vulnerable and doubted that taking the island would provide any particular tactical advantage. He said it would be an “odd” thing to do, although the U.S. could do so if it had to.
(Reporting by David Brunnstrom; editing by Andy Sullivan, William Maclean)