Suncor Energy is not yet willing to accelerate plans for production increases, the company’s CEO said on Wednesday, despite large-scale policy reforms promised by the federal and Alberta governments in an effort to spur growth in Canada’s oil industry. The comments underline uncertainty around whether the federal government’s friendlier stance toward the energy sector will translate into increased company investment and higher output in Canada, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer. Suncor’s outlook has not changed since its March investor day, CEO Rich Kruger said on a conference call, adding that there is still a lot of work to do to turn last month’s memorandum of understanding between the oil sands industry and governments into definitive agreements enshrined in legislation.
“In terms of how it has or may affect our plans, that’s still to be determined,” Kruger said. Major oil sands CEOs — including Kruger — signed a non-binding agreement in July with Alberta and Canada that aimed to lay out conditions for the advancement of a carbon capture and storage project, known as Pathways, which would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the oil sands. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has endorsed Alberta’s vision of a new 1 million barrel per day export pipeline to the Pacific coast, but said his support is contingent on the Pathways project going ahead.
The agreement was the latest in a series of efforts by Carney’s government to repair relations with Canada’s oil industry, which had opposed many of the environmental policies implemented by his predecessor, Justin Trudeau. Carney has revoked or watered down many of those policies, and pledged to speed up permitting times for major energy development projects. However, many of the proposed policy changes have not yet been drafted into final legislation. Canadian pipeline operator Enbridge said last week it will postpone a planned 250,000-bpd expansion of its Mainline network, citing oil producers’ unwillingness to commit to significant production increases.
Kruger said while the tone from the Canadian government is more positive than it has been in a decade, the company wants to be thoughtful before committing to any acceleration of its growth plans. In March, Suncor said it expects to grow its upstream production by about 100,000 bpd by 2028, up from the 840,000 to 870,000 bpd it expects for 2026, and planned to significantly expand its steam-assisted oil sands production in the 2030s.
Kruger said Suncor retains the option to ramp up faster if desired.
“We’ve not shifted to that mode at all, but we have that flexibility,” he said.
(Reporting by Amanda Stephenson in Calgary; Editing by Nia Williams)