CALGARY – Alberta’s finances have swung back in the black after war in the Middle East sent global energy prices surging.
The province’s latest fiscal update predicts a $2-billion surplus — a huge turnaround from the $9.4-billion deficit originally expected for the 2026 fiscal year.
It’s the latest reversal of fortune for the oil-rich province perennially tied to international energy markets.
Six months ago, the province anticipated West Texas Intermediate – the North American benchmark oil price — would average US$60.50 a barrel this year.
Two days after the province introduced its February budget, the U.S.-Iran conflict began, choking off oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.
Since April, the province estimates the price of WTI has averaged just above US$88 per barrel.
With every dollar increase in the average WTI price, Alberta’s treasury stands to gain $680 million.
For the latest numbers to pan out, WTI would have to average US$65 per barrel for the rest of the year, ending next March.
The government’s year-end results for 2025-26 have been delayed, but officials are anticipating the latest windfall will more than erase that year’s $4.1-billion projected deficit.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 27, 2026.