U.S. natural gas supply and demand will both rise to record highs in 2026 and 2027, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Wednesday.
The EIA projected dry gas production will rise from a record 107.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 111.7 bcfd in 2026 and 115.9 bcfd in 2027.
The agency also projected domestic gas consumption will rise from a record 91.9 bcfd in 2025 to 92.2 bcfd in 2026 and 94.3 bcfd in 2027.
The September projections for 2026 were higher than the EIA’s forecasts in August of 111.2 bcfd for production and 92.0 bcfd for demand.
The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas exports would rise from a record 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027.
The EIA said U.S. gas inventories were on track to start the winter about 5% above the five-year average on October 31, due in part to rising production in the Permian and Haynesville shale regions.
With power generators expected to burn less coal in coming years, the EIA projected U.S. coal production would drop from a two-year high of 528.4 million short tons in 2025 to 516.3 million tons in 2026, and 496.7 million tons in 2027, which would be the lowest level since 1963.
The agency projected carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels would decline from a three-year high of 4.904 billion metric tons in 2025 to 4.821 billion tons in 2026 and 4.816 billion tons in 2027 as oil and coal use decreases.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Rod Nickel)