Venezuela’s long-awaited vote may not happen for a year or more due to planned overhauls of the courts and electoral authorities, according to five political sources and analysts, despite Acting President Delcy Rodriguez’s promise of a transition to “full democracy”.
Rodriguez, who took power after a US raid captured then-President Nicolas Maduro in January, told the UN General Assembly on Wednesday that state institutions were preparing for elections. She said her government had opened talks with the opposition and would guarantee full participation, but gave no timetable.
Five sources, including from parties close to the government and opposition, as well as analysts said that major obstacles remain, such as difficult institutional reforms and little apparent urgency in Washington for a prompt vote.
Two of the sources told Reuters that an election was unlikely before the end of next year.
TRICKY REFORMS
At the center of the delay is the planned replacement of all 32 Supreme Court judges and the five directors of the National Electoral Council, the top electoral body. Opposition groups and international rights observers have long said that both bodies lack independence, and that Maduro’s 2018 and 2024 re-elections were fraudulent.
Institutional reform is under discussion in US-backed talks between Rodriguez’s interim government and a faction of the opposition.
But even after a new electoral council is installed, authorities would still need to update voter rolls, ensure that all parties can compete and resolve basic operational questions such as whether voting would be manual or electronic, said Oswaldo Martinez, of the Caracas-based consultancy ORC.
That process alone could take up to a year, according to two of the sources close to the talks.
US CALL FOR STABILITY
US officials have also said that any political transition must be accompanied by economic and social stability, raising more potential questions on the electoral timeline.
“What would threaten an enduring republic in Venezuela would be that someone is elected and they inherit a complete catastrophe, economic and social, and then the whole project is endangered,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week.
Some critics of this position say Washington has sidelined the country’s opposition and reduced the urgency for free elections in favor of oil and investment deals with the interim government.
Last month, President Donald Trump announced an unprecedented US push to take control of a fifth of Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.
“The Trump administration is currently prioritizing economic stability and oil-related deals under Delcy, with little apparent urgency to move toward a fresh vote,” said Risa Grais-Targow, Latin America director at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.
“That, along with some of the required institutional changes, suggests new elections won’t be held until late 2027 at the earliest, with a possibility that it takes longer.”
COMPETING PRIORITIES
Maria Corina Machado, Venezuela’s best-known opposition leader and exiled Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has been notably absent from the talks with the interim government as her efforts to re-enter the country have been stymied.
Some US lawmakers have called for electionsand say that Washington has not secured meaningful democratic concessions from Rodriguez’s government.
“Stability and economic normalization centered heavily on US commercial participation remain the priorities,” said Nicholas Watson of consultancy Teneo, adding that Washington and Caracas are treating the need for political transition as a “longer-term” and “open-ended” process.
“Neither is taking decisive steps toward an electoral process,” Watson said.
(Reporting by Vivian Sequera and Mayela Armas in Caracas and Anthony Esposito in New York; Editing by Jonathan Spicer)