Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports, including “dark exports” involving ships operating with their location transponders turned off, have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the last week, in line with their 2025 average, as exports doubled in September, it said in a note on Tuesday.
It noted that the recovery was driven by increased exports through the Strait of Hormuz, including via ship-to-ship transfers.
* Estimated crude exports accounted for nearly 90% of the September recovery in Gulf exports, reaching 19 million bpd, or 108% of their 2025 average, over the last week, Goldman said. The bank estimates about 5.2 million bpd in dark exports occurred in September.
* It added that exports of refined products and LPG have grown, but exports of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel remain at 50% of their 2025 average.
* Goldman Sachs estimates the global oil market is roughly balanced in September, while OECD commercial oil stocks are in line with late February 2026 levels.
* “The remarkable adaptation of both Mideast supply and China import demand supports our base case that Brent prices moderate to $85 (a barrel) by year-end and to $80 in 2027,” the bank said.
* Brent crude is headed for a monthly gain of around 14% in September, the biggest since July. Prices rose on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump denied he would be willing to ease sanctions on Iran while Qatar pushed for peace talks.
* “We still worry about renewed potential escalation that damages more energy infrastructure, which could cause significant upside to prices,” Goldman added.
(Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)