Oil and gas production in the key producing states of Texas, Louisiana and New Mexico rose in the third quarter of 2026, the Dallas Fed said in a survey on Wednesday, but the now seven-month old Iran war continues to rock energy markets and inject uncertainty into producers’ plans.
The rise in production comes as US oil prices touch $100 a barrel as the war in Iran spills out across the Middle East and disrupts global supplies, hindering some production in the region as well as keeping key shipping routes largely shut and forcing global importers to compete for a smaller pool of barrels.
US crude futures have been volatile over the last three months, averaging a closing price of around $86 a barrel in the third quarter according to LSEG, swinging from a low of $67 in early July to a high of $107 in mid-September.
“We are getting to the point in this global conflict and its effect on commodity markets that it is tough to predict what the remainder of 2026 and also 2027 will potentially look like,” an Exploration and Production survey respondent said.
On average, respondents expect a West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price of $88 a barrel in a wide range of $70 to $126, and a Henry Hub natural gas price of $3.29 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) at year-end 2026.
“It sure would be nice to have a less volatile market,” another respondent said.
Data were collected September 16–24, and 125 energy firms responded. Of the respondents, 83 were exploration and production firms, and 42 were oilfield services firms.
(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston)