Goldman Sachs on Friday predicted a modest decrease in Iranian crude oil production as a result of expected policy changes and tighter sanctions from the administration of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump.
The investment bank’s base case anticipates a 300,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) drop in Iran’s crude supply to 3.25 million bpd by the second quarter of 2025. Analysts also forecast that the Brent oil benchmark will peak at $78 per barrel in June.
“Although we think risks to Iran’s production are skewed to the downside from current levels and versus our forecasts, we retain our baseline expectations for Iranian crude oil production to decline to 3.25 mb/d by 2Q2025 for now,” Goldman Sachs said in a research note.
The bank expects a continued decline in Iranian oil exports.
Iranian crude oil floating storage has built to a 12-month high of 20 million barrels and the Iranian export fleet is relatively stretched with high exports per vessel, historically associated with subsequent declines in Iran’s crude exports, Goldman Sachs said.
(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Nia Williams)