Goldman Sachs said in a note on Friday that global oil demand has declined more than expected, posing two-sided risks to its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent crude price forecast of $90 a barrel and WTI forecast of $83 per barrel.
The bank estimated 4 million to 5 million barrels per day (mb/d) of global oil demand destruction in April, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers appeared to have reduced global demand by 4% to 5%.
The decline in demand was driven by weaker consumption, particularly in China and Western Europe, where April retail fuel sales reports were soft, Goldman Sachs said.
The bank’s estimates were based on three different approaches, including an analysis of global refinery runs, high-frequency measures of oil demand, and estimates from other forecasters and trading houses.
While the demand decline poses downside risks to oil prices, Goldman Sachs also noted that there are significant upside risks if the strait remains closed and global supplies slump further.
On Friday, Brent crude futures settled at $93.09 a barrel, down $1.94 or 2.04%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $90.54 a barrel, down $2.50, or 2.69%.
(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru; Editing by David Gregorio)