“In addition to such problems with the perception of risk, it is also a scientific fact, and a shocking one, that both risk detection and risk avoidance are not mediated in the “thinking” part of the brain but largely in the emotional one…The consequences are not trivial: It means that rational thinking has little, very little, to do with risk avoidance.” - Nassim Taleb, Fooled by Randomness, p 38) Fire! Fear. Flood! Fear. Drought! Fear. There is a global shortage of natural gas! Blank [Read more]
Etam: Where the wild things are – exposure to “the doing class” will solve the global energy crisis
“Because one believes in oneself, one doesn’t try to convince others.” Lao Tzu Education or propaganda? Information or strategic communications? Clarity or wishful thinking? Quick Dick McDick or Gerald Butts? Homer Simpson or Al Gore? What is the purpose of raising a voice in the public square? To influence ideas? Support the troops? Bend policy? Entertain? Boost morale? Vanity? Bad actors cheat, in a sense - they manipulate the microphones, control the loudest ones, render others [Read more]
Column: Changing the world is pretty hard – a lifetime of dashed hopes and dead penny stocks
Some years ago, I had an epiphany: Popular Mechanics magazine was full of crap. Popular Science also. Oh sure, they were infinitely interesting, for the curious of mind. These publications cover the wildest assortment of scientific developments imaginable. The problem was, particularly for fans of new technology and progress, that the publishers tended to slap on the cover a steady stream of blindingly cool new stuff that “might just” revolutionize one thing or another. I’d get giddy at the [Read more]
Column: Why spend a trillion if you don’t have to? Hydrogen the smart way
Let’s say a hundred years ago some rattled soul emigrated from Russia to this country, fleeing, I don’t know, the Russian revolution or in-laws, whatever. Let’s say he/she became a wealthy industrialist and built a bunch of stuff, and among the accomplishments was the construction of a major airport that became a massive central link in a global distribution hub (hey, it's just a thought exercise, no judging). The hub grew to include warehouses and trucking operations and you name it, and wealth [Read more]
Column: BRICS starts sidestepping the tragedy of western energy policy
As I spent a summer avoiding energy discussions wherever possible (harder than normal; funny how 15 years of energy policy calamity was uninteresting until record utility bills scorched J. Q. Public’s eyeballs), the lazy days in the sun brought some needed clarity about the energy world, a world over which a sheer madness has descended (Trudeau/Germany/LNG-begging/hydrogen-offering - need I say more?). Encircling the globe is an energy turmoil and upheaval of surely historical proportions (I [Read more]
Column: Appalling new historical precedent – surplus cash flow cannot solve world’s energy problems, by design
[Scene: Suburbia. A harried wife returning home from work. Angry slamming of a front door.] “I'm home! Where are you? What the hell is going on? Why is the garage full of cash? I can’t even get the car in! What are you, Heisenberg now?” “No, no, no. Honey, I can explain! We’re having a really good year at work, like really good -“ “Listen ya mook! You better come clean! You work in natural gas. Furnaces excite you. No one piles up cash like that unless they’re big tech or drug lords. Now [Read more]
Column: Summer interrupted – A good news energy story amid the carnage
It’s not even Stampede yet - and it looks like it will be a good old-fashioned free-for-all - and I’ve already encountered a fascinating drunken goofball at the top of his game. Nothing unusual there, I suppose, except that this encounter actually had an interesting and thoughtful punchline. It happened on the train to downtown last week, at about 8 am. Life is returning to normal and the train was fairly full. Halfway downtown, two guys oozed aboard, oddly drunk for 8 am; not [Read more]
Column: People, you better vote for better energy policy, and fast
If there’s any point to energy writing, it is to perhaps try to pull together disparate bits of information that the average citizen is too busy to notice, the sort of random and arcane stats and events that only genuine weirdos devote their spare hours to. Truffle pigs find the truffles. People learning about energy from the daily news hour is like learning about anatomy by watching Jackass. To get the real story, follow the nerds. If someone hears an activist and/or federal cabinet minister [Read more]
Column: North America may see natural gas prices follow global ones – a frightening taste of the agony developing countries are facing
On a back table in my office is a small pile of colour-coded maps that I don’t talk about much because they make me look like a madman. They are maps of Pennsylvania, documenting a semi-pathological and dogged fascination with US shale gas production. One pile shows all of Pennsylvania’s counties; the counties are colour-coded by either the number of producing gas wells or the cumulative gas produced since the start of the Appalachia shale revolution. The second, deeper level shows the [Read more]
Column: Disinformation becomes an art form, and – a government department. What could go wrong?
I’m not a fan of making predictions of any specificity, because there are usually way too many variables at play for anything of consequence. Trying to guess the price of oil at YE 2022 leaves me speechless despite the pathetically large number of hours I spend trying to understand the market. Yet, given the way 2022 has unfolded, I offer the following predictions as more than odds-on favourites to occur. Pigs will fly through the sky delivering Amazon packages. Kim Jong-un will sing a duet [Read more]
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