It’s that time of the year when many people feel the need to forecast what will happen in the coming year. It’s just another dumb habit that permeates the media as we pore through the articles, nodding in agreement or snorting in disgust, and adding not one iota of value to our lives. But it should be safe to say that it will be an interesting year in the energy business. Some aspects will remain boringly and irritatingly similar, like the irrational disrespect the general population shows [Read more]
When capital returns to oil and gas development, where will it go?
The energy world is waiting on pins and needles for the good times to return, or if not on pins and needles then waiting in the bar. The human toll of the downturn has been significant, especially for a generation that hasn’t really seen the down side of the commodity price cycle. Well now they've seen it good and hard. The good news is that it is indeed a cycle. There is a weird consensus out there however that the good times might only come back briefly, just to put in a quick appearance [Read more]
Winter strikes hard and nothing will save you but fossil fuels
In a week of brutally cold temperatures, when pedestrians wonder if they’ll make it to the next building alive, the title above might seem like gloating, like an energy industry just dying to say “you’re welcome” in response to a society that would surely be grateful for its services. But it’s not gloating. It is not smug, or righteous, or in-your-face. It is a fact about a simple physical reality that the energy industry would love to see discussed with the frequency it deserves. We hear [Read more]
Reducing fossil fuel consumption starts with cutting demand, not supply but…you first
In 1999, the Ford Motor Company introduced a vehicular whale named the Excursion. The SUV craze was getting into full swing, but even in that context the huge (5.75 meter/ 18.9 foot) barge generated nasty press for its school-bus demeanor. Here is the essence of a typical review of the day, from the first two paragraphs: “…largest sport/utility vehicle on this, or any other, planet… In traffic, you pick one lane and stay there, lest you overlook something small-like a stretched limo-in the next [Read more]
Which is scariest – clowns, pipelines or texting in motion? Our inability to judge risk
A bizarre phenomenon appeared this past Halloween with the onset of some sort of clown-fueled hysteria. A certain subset of bored teenagers realized that loitering in clown costumes could really creep people out. Like any other YouTube-fueled weirdness, the fad quickly spread and North America was soon inundated with punks in full clown regalia, peeking out from behind trees at passing cars in as disturbing a manner as possible. The fad slowed when the jumpier segment of the population began [Read more]
Natural gas glut headlines are wildly off base
The BOE Report recently ran an article originating from a major news service about natural gas storage levels entitled “ U.S. Gas Glut May have Grown 10 Times More than it Usually Does." Anyone who reads energy news gets inured to dumb stories, but reading this one – particularly the headline – was like passing a kidney stone wrapped in barbwire. It’s not as if the article simply had a poor forecast or some other subjective slant; there is plenty of room for opinions and even crazy ones often [Read more]
The “Keep Fossil Fuels in the Ground” Initiative – finally, bad science we can live with
There is a growing environmental movement called “Keep fossil fuels in the ground” based on a report by, I don’t know, some silly environmental group. Their thesis is that in order to save the climate (their inexplicable phrase, not mine – the climate can’t be “saved”, it will always be a climate even if temperatures go up 50 degrees) 80 percent of fossil fuels need to remain in the ground. Finally, common ground to work from. Although the article itself is remarkably stupid (per senior [Read more]
The random Trump card – it won’t be business as usual, and it might turn out good, depending on what he blows up
It’s hard to comprehend what just happened with the US election, and it is quite likely that Donald Trump is having trouble comprehending what he’s gotten himself into. We all know it’s going to be a bizarre four years, but will they be bizarre in terms of things getting done in government that we’re not used to, or will it be bizarre like what would happen if 5 year olds designed a shopping mall? And, since we are discussing this on the world’s finest energy website, what does it mean for [Read more]
Give them what they want – it’s time for a winter without pipelines
A handful of environmental activists recently clambered over some fences and shut down multiple oil sands pipelines in a concerted attack. The participants even stopped to pose for pictures, raising their arms in celebration and grinning like the world’s stupidest hick posing with a freshly-killed trophy rat, visions of Facebook glory clearly evident on their proud little faces. I stared at the pictures, willing a jet of crude oil to emit from a broken valve and coat them like gravy, to no [Read more]
ExxonMobil and Venezuela navigate the media with guile and shredded bravado, respectively (of course)
Just how wrong can an expert be? That sounds like a fairly stupid hypothetical question; obviously they can be exactly wrong, particularly when it comes to things like forecasts. These are proved right or wrong by time,and of course most of them will be wrong. The purpose here is to look at some statements that are beyond simple forecasts, to look at a few recent prognoses offered by some of the world’s most senior oil executives that, on the face of it, seem inescapably half-witted. In [Read more]
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