Commodities supercycles can reshape markets for years, if not decades. We appear to be in one again, as the Iran war has amplified several long-term bullish trends. The question for many investors has shifted from whether to engage with the supercycle to how. Following the initial U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran on February 28, oil recorded its largest monthly gain in history. Combine that with copper and gold's substantial gains since mid-2025 – as well as the ongoing race for energy, metals and [Read more]

The discount on Western Canada Select crude oil to North American benchmark West Texas Intermediate futures widened on Monday. WCS for May delivery in Hardisty, Alberta, settled at $16.25 a barrel below the U.S. benchmark WTI, according to brokerage CalRock, compared to $15.55 on Friday. * The WCS differential has been volatile since the start of the U.S. war on Iran, with competing variables pulling and pushing on relative prices for Canadian heavy crude. * Historically, the [Read more]

The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said on Monday he hopes another oil stockpile release is not needed but "we stand ready to act" if the energy shock resulting from the war with Iran requires it. The 32-member IEA agreed last month to release 400 million barrels of oil from reserves, the largest coordinated release ever, in a bid to calm oil markets. The U.S., the world's largest oil and gas producer, agreed to release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum [Read more]

OPEC on Monday lowered its forecast for world oil demand in the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day, citing the impact of the war in the Middle East, the producer group's monthly oil report showed on its website. Global oil demand is projected to average 105.07 million bpd in the second quarter, OPEC's report said, down from the 105.57 million bpd forecast in last month's report. "The demand growth for the second quarter of 2026 is revised down for both the OECD and non-OECD, driven [Read more]

The United States' NATO allies said on Monday they would not get involved in President Donald Trump's plan to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, further ratcheting up tensions within the increasingly fragile alliance. Trump said the U.S. military would work with other countries to block all maritime traffic in the waterway, after weekend talks failed to reach an agreement to end the six-week conflict with Iran. The U.S. military later specified that the blockade, due to start at 1400 GMT on Monday, [Read more]

Oil prices surged on Monday as the U.S. moved to impose a blockade on Iranian shipping after the collapse of weekend peace talks, while the dollar rose and stocks and bonds fell. The U.S. move, aimed at putting pressure on Tehran, leaves a fragile ceasefire hanging in the balance and no end in sight to the choke on Middle East energy exports - though the mood on trading floors leaned toward hoping for a resolution. Brent crude futures were up 7% at $102 a barrel, marking a gain of more [Read more]

Morgan Stanley left its Brent crude oil price forecasts unchanged on Monday, at $110 a barrel for the second quarter of 2026 and $100 a barrel in the third quarter, falling to $80 a barrel in 2027. The bank said it expected oil supply chains to take months to normalise even if a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz can be achieved. Under its base-case scenario, exports through the Strait stay at low levels in April, recover about 70% of lost volumes between May and July, and return to [Read more]