JP Morgan on Wednesday said it expects Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ spare capacity to fall through 2022, driving a higher risk premium to oil prices.
JPM forecasts oil prices to rise as high as $125 a barrel this year and $150 a barrel in 2023. “We see growing market recognition of global underinvestment in supply,” the bank said.
Oil prices hit two-month highs on Wednesday on tight supply as crude inventories in the United States, the world’s top consumer, fell to their lowest since 2018. A weaker dollar and easing concerns about the Omicron coronavirus variant were also factors.
Assuming production at prevailing quotas, OPEC spare capacity will fall to 4% of total production capacity by fourth quarter 2022, from 13% in the third quarter 2021, the U.S. investment bank said in a note.
JPM said this comes at a critical point as other global producers falter. The combination of underinvestment within OPEC+ nations and post-pandemic rising oil demand could lead to a potential energy crisis.