U.S. natural gas production and demand were both on track to rise to record highs in 2022 as the economy grows, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.
EIA projected that dry gas production will rise to 96.50 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022 and 101.57 bcfd in 2023 from a record 93.55 bcfd in 2021.
The agency also projected gas consumption would rise from 82.98 in 2021 to 85.33 bcfd in 2022 before sliding to 85.15 bcfd in 2023. That compares with a record 85.29 bcfd in 2019.
EIA’s June projections for 2022 were less than its May forecasts of 96.71 bcfd for supply and 85.73 bcfd for demand.
The agency forecast U.S. liquefied natural gas exports would reach 11.94 bcfd in 2022 and 12.63 bcfd in 2023, up from a record 9.76 bcfd in 2021. That was lower than its May forecast of 11.99 bcfd in 2022.
EIA projected U.S. coal production would rise from 578 million short tons in 2021 to 601 million short tons in 2022 as power companies burn more coal due to an expected rise in gas prices. Coal output was expected to slide to 588 million short tons in 2023.
In 2020, coal output fell to 535 million short tons, its lowest since 1965.
As power generators burn more coal, EIA projected carbon emissions from fossil fuels would rise to 4.936 billion tonnes in 2022 from 4.872 billion tonnes in 2021, and 4.900 billion tonnes in 2023.
That compares with 4.577 billion tonnes in 2020, which was the lowest since 1983 because the coronavirus pandemic depressed demand for energy.