CALGARY – A report from TD Economics says a new oil pipeline to the West Coast would lift Canada and Alberta’s gross domestic product, but perhaps not to the degree the provincial and federal governments are forecasting.
The government analysis predicts a 0.6 per cent boost to the national economy by the 2040s and 3.5 per cent for Alberta’s.
The TD report says those numbers “may lean optimistic” as the governments look to advance the project’s early-stage development.
Using more conservative assumptions, TD says the increase could be more like 0.3 per cent nationally and two per cent provincially — still a meaningful contribution to growth.
The report also cautions that Asia’s long-term oil demand could flatten as electric vehicle and clean energy adoption grows in China; enabling more exports across the Pacific is a key driver for the plan.
Alberta filed its application for the million-barrel-a-day pipeline earlier this month, which is to be developed, built and operated by Crown-owned Trans Mountain Corp.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 27, 2026.
Note to readers:This is a corrected story; An earlier version said TD was expecting a three per cent GDP increase from the pipeline.