CALGARY, Alberta – Athabasca Oil Corporation (TSX: ATH) (“Athabasca” or the “Company”) is pleased to report its 2022 second quarter results with continued significant Free Cash Flow and material deleveraging. Athabasca is uniquely positioned as a low leveraged company generating significant Free Cash Flow through its low-decline, oil weighted asset base.
Q2 Corporate Highlights
- Production: 33,247 boe/d (92% Liquids) consisting of 26,768 bbl/d in Thermal Oil and 6,479 boe/d (58% Liquids) in Light Oil. The Company completed a successful turnaround at Leismer in May and is increasing its annual production guidance to 34,000 – 35,000 boe/d (from prior guidance of 33,000 – 34,000 boe/d) based on strong underlying asset performance.
- Capital Expenditures: $51 million focused on sustaining operations in Thermal Oil.
- Record Netbacks: $64.77/boe in Light Oil, $56.78/bbl at Leismer and $53.48/bbl at Hangingstone, supported by strong commodity prices.
- Record Cash Flow: Record quarterly Adjusted Funds Flow1 of $85 million and Free Cash Flow of $34 million. The Company is now forecasting Adjusted Funds Flow2 of ~$350 million and Free Cash Flow2 of ~$220 million. Continued cash flow expansion is expected through 2023 as described below.
- Significant Deleveraging: Redeemed $167 million (US$131 million) in Term Debt year to date, achieving 75% of US$175 million debt reduction target which is anticipated to be reached in H1 2023. The Company has low Net Debt of ~$100 million and expects to be in a Net Cash position before year end.
Operational Highlights
- Leismer Development: Current production (22,400 bbl/d in June) is underpinned by the strong ramp up of Pad L8 (5 well pairs) which is producing ~5,500 bbl/d. Strong new well performance, combined with effective use of non-condensable gas co-injection on mature pads, is resulting in a current steam oil ratio of 2.8x (June). The Company recently drilled two infill wells at Pad L6 and drilling is underway for another five additional well pairs at Pad L8, with new production expected in 2023. Athabasca plans to grow Leismer’s production up to the facility’s oil handling capacity by maintaining its current capital cadence. The Company is achieving Profit-to-Investment Ratios (NPV/Investment) of ~10x through this development plan.
- Hangingstone: Production of ~9,400 bbl/d (June). Non condensable gas co-injection is resulting in reduced energy intensity with the steam oil ratio of 3.8x year to date.
- Light Oil Duvernay and Montney: Three Duvernay wells at Two Creeks completed in Q1 continue to outperform expectations with IP90s averaging ~610 boe/d (96% Liquids) for each well. The Company has a flexible development portfolio of ~850 gross de-risked Montney and Duvernay wells along with strategic ownership and operatorship of liquids and gas infrastructure.
Footnote: Refer to the “Reader Advisory” section within this news release for additional information on Non‐GAAP Financial Measures (e.g. Operating Income/Netbacks, Adjusted Funds Flow, Free Cash Flow, Net Debt/Cash) and production disclosure.
1 Cash Flow from Operating Activities of $69 million.
2 Pricing Assumptions: realized prices for H1 2022 and flat pricing of US$95 WTI, US$20 Western Canadian Select “WCS” heavy differential, C$5.50 AECO, and $0.775 C$/US$ FX for the balance of 2022.
Strategic Update and Corporate Outlook
- Low Decline, Long Life Asset Base. The Company’s increased production guidance of 34,000 – 35,000 boe/d and a modest 2022 capital program is indicative of long-term sustaining capital that benefits from a low decline, large resource asset base. The Company has a deep asset inventory with 1,230 mmbbl 2P Reserves in Thermal Oil and ~850 gross wells of short cycle-time, high returning Light Oil Assets. The asset portfolio is demonstrating its ability to generate significant Free Cash Flow and will provide tremendous optionality into the future.
- Managing for Free Cash Flow. For 2022, Athabasca is increasing its financial forecasts based on strong operational performance and updated pricing assumptions. Adjusted Funds Flow1 is forecasted to be ~$350 million including Free Cash Flow1 of ~$220 million. The Company further expects to generate ~$950 million in Free Cash Flow during the three year timeframe of 2022-24 (inclusive of 2022 guidance and flat pricing of US$85 WTI and US$12.50 WCS differentials thereafter). Every $5/bbl WTI change impacts Free Cash Flow by ~$45 million annually (unhedged). The Company’s strong margins and Free Cash Flow profile is supported by $3.1 billion in tax pools and a pre-payout Crown royalty structure for its Thermal Oil assets.
- Executing Significant Deleveraging with Clear Targets: The Company is planning to utilize 100% of near‐term Free Cash Flow to reduce its Term Debt and is anticipating being in a Net Cash position before year end 2022. Year to date the Company has redeemed a total of $167 million (US$131 million) through open market purchases, equity redemptions through warrant proceeds and the Free Cash Flow payment feature within the indenture. This achieves 75% of our US$175 million debt reduction target which is anticipated to be reached in H1 2023.
- Excellent Exposure to Commodity Price Upside: Athabasca has retained excellent exposure to upside in commodity prices with 50% of its 2022 sales volumes unhedged, 20% of its sales hedged through collars with upside to US$115 WTI, and 30% of its sales hedged through fixed swaps at an implied US$74 WTI (assuming a US$20 WCS differential). The Company has minimal hedging in 2023 and expects lower future hedge levels relative to 2022 to protect its base capital program as debt targets are achieved.
- Thermal Oil Differentiation: Athabasca’s Thermal assets operate in a pre-payout Crown royalty structure, with royalty rates between 5 – 9%, and is anticipated to last beyond 2028 (US$85 WTI, US$12.50 WCS differential flat pricing). This results in maximum cash flow at current commodity prices and creates a significant advantage over the majority of Industry oil sands projects. The Company’s low decline, long reserve life Thermal Oil assets are forecasted to generate ~$500 million in Operating Income1 in 2022. At current commodity prices, these assets compete exceptionally well on all cash flow metrics against top plays in North America with capital investments generating double-digit Recycle and Profit-to-Investment Ratios.
- Unlocking Shareholder Value: The transition of enterprise value to equity holders is materializing and is expected to unlock significant shareholder value. Athabasca is committed to further enhancing shareholder returns by utilizing Free Cash Flow and cash balances for share buy-backs or dividends once its debt target is achieved. The Company sees tremendous intrinsic value not reflected in the current share price. Guidance on shareholder returns and the corporate capital allocation framework will be provided in the fourth quarter.
1 Pricing Assumptions: realized prices for H1 2022 and flat pricing of US$95 WTI, US$20 Western Canadian Select “WCS” heavy differential, C$5.50 AECO, and $0.775 C$/US$ FX for the balance of 2022.
Financial and Operational Highlights
Three months ended June 30, |
Six months ended June 30, |
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($ Thousands, unless otherwise noted) | 2022 | 2021 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||||||||
CONSOLIDATED | ||||||||||||||||
Petroleum and natural gas production (boe/d)(1) | 33,247 | 34,659 | 33,958 | 34,531 | ||||||||||||
Petroleum, natural gas and midstream sales | $ | 435,678 | $ | 232,111 | $ | 825,102 | $ | 443,767 | ||||||||
Operating Income (Loss)(1) | $ | 169,255 | $ | 93,196 | $ | 319,895 | $ | 159,124 | ||||||||
Operating Income (Loss) Net of Realized Hedging(1)(2) | $ | 103,549 | $ | 75,372 | $ | 206,543 | $ | 120,187 | ||||||||
Operating Netback ($/boe)(1) | $ | 57.51 | $ | 31.09 | $ | 52.26 | $ | 26.00 | ||||||||
Operating Netback Net of Realized Hedging ($/boe)(1)(2) | $ | 35.18 | $ | 25.14 | $ | 33.74 | $ | 19.64 | ||||||||
Capital expenditures | $ | 51,191 | $ | 22,628 | $ | 82,120 | $ | 58,182 | ||||||||
Free Cash Flow(1) | $ | 33,608 | $ | 27,600 | $ | 77,440 | $ | 11,007 | ||||||||
THERMAL OIL DIVISION | ||||||||||||||||
Bitumen production (bbl/d) | 26,768 | 26,433 | 27,335 | 26,193 | ||||||||||||
Petroleum, natural gas and midstream sales | $ | 399,793 | $ | 207,503 | $ | 760,074 | $ | 394,213 | ||||||||
Operating Income (Loss)(1) | $ | 131,067 | $ | 67,568 | $ | 251,904 | $ | 109,736 | ||||||||
Operating Netback ($/bbl)(1) | $ | 55.68 | $ | 30.05 | $ | 51.17 | $ | 23.81 | ||||||||
Capital expenditures | $ | 43,093 | $ | 21,388 | $ | 64,275 | $ | 54,402 | ||||||||
LIGHT OIL DIVISION | ||||||||||||||||
Petroleum and natural gas production (boe/d)(1) | 6,479 | 8,226 | 6,623 | 8,338 | ||||||||||||
Percentage Liquids (%)(1) | 58 | % | 57 | % | 57 | % | 57 | % | ||||||||
Petroleum, natural gas and midstream sales | $ | 53,825 | $ | 36,365 | $ | 98,933 | $ | 70,937 | ||||||||
Operating Income (Loss)(1) | $ | 38,188 | $ | 25,628 | $ | 67,991 | $ | 49,388 | ||||||||
Operating Netback ($/boe)(1) | $ | 64.77 | $ | 34.23 | $ | 56.72 | $ | 32.72 | ||||||||
Capital expenditures | $ | 1,221 | $ | 544 | $ | 9,208 | $ | 1,512 | ||||||||
CASH FLOW AND FUNDS FLOW | ||||||||||||||||
Cash flow from operating activities | $ | 68,535 | $ | 36,183 | $ | 128,397 | $ | 37,321 | ||||||||
per share – basic | $ | 0.12 | $ | 0.07 | $ | 0.23 | $ | 0.07 | ||||||||
Adjusted Funds Flow(1) | $ | 84,799 | $ | 50,228 | $ | 159,560 | $ | 69,189 | ||||||||
per share – basic | $ | 0.15 | $ | 0.09 | $ | 0.29 | $ | 0.13 | ||||||||
NET INCOME (LOSS) AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (LOSS) | ||||||||||||||||
Net income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss) | $ | 47,121 | $ | (13,944 | ) | $ | (72,480 | ) | $ | (31,416 | ) | |||||
per share – basic | $ | 0.08 | $ | (0.03 | ) | $ | (0.13 | ) | $ | (0.06 | ) | |||||
per share – diluted | $ | 0.08 | $ | (0.03 | ) | $ | (0.13 | ) | $ | (0.06 | ) | |||||
COMMON SHARES OUTSTANDING | ||||||||||||||||
Weighted average shares outstanding – basic | 568,728,441 | 530,675,391 | 550,013,742 | 530,675,391 | ||||||||||||
Weighted average shares outstanding – diluted | 585,934,027 | 530,675,391 | 550,013,742 | 530,675,391 |
June 30, | December 31, | |||||
As at ($ Thousands) | 2022 | 2021 | ||||
LIQUIDITY AND BALANCE SHEET | ||||||
Cash and cash equivalents | $ | 154,172 | $ | 223,056 | ||
Available credit facilities(3) | $ | 77,838 | $ | 77,844 | ||
Face value of term debt(4) | $ | 291,881 | $ | 443,730 |
(1) Refer to the “Reader Advisory” section within this news release for additional information on Non-GAAP Financial Measures and production disclosure.
(2) Includes realized commodity risk management loss of $65.7 million and $113.4 million for the three and six months ended June 30, 2022 (three and six months ended June 30, 2021 – loss of $17.8 million and $38.9 million).
(3) Includes available credit under Athabasca’s Credit Facility and Unsecured Letter of Credit Facility.
(4) The face value of the term debt at June 30, 2022 was US$227 million (December 31, 2021 – US$350 million) translated into Canadian dollars at the June 30, 2022 exchange rate of US$1.00 =C$1.2886 (December 31, 2021 – C$1.2678).
Operations Update
Thermal Oil
Bitumen production for Q2 2022 averaged 26,768 bbl/d. The Thermal Oil division generated Operating Income of $131 million. Q2 2022 Operating Netbacks for Leismer and Hangingstone were a record $56.78/bbl and $53.48/bbl, respectively. Capital expenditures were $43 million.
For 2022, Athabasca has fully hedged its Thermal Oil gas input costs through its Light Oil gas production with the balance financially hedged at ~C$4/mcf AECO. The Company has also commenced hedging its gas input costs for 2023 locking in 10 mmcf/d at ~C$5.50/mcf.
Leismer
Bitumen production for the second quarter averaged 17,436 bbl/d inclusive of downtime related to the planned facility turnaround in May which was completed on time and within budget. With a peak workforce of ~550 people completing ~92,000 hours of work, Athabasca is pleased to report no lost time incidents and no reportable spills. The safety of our people is a top priority and our results showcase the deeply embedded safety culture within the organization.
At Pad L8, all five sustaining well pairs have been converted to production. The initial production ramp-up has exceeded management expectations and the pad is producing ~5,500 bbl/d. In June, the Company drilled two additional infill wells at Pad L6 and drilling is underway on five additional well pairs at Pad L8. These wells are expected to support production in 2023 and the sustaining pads have unparalleled Profit-to-Investment Ratios (NPV/Investment) of ~10x and double-digit Recycle Ratios (US$85 WTI, US$12.50 WCS differentials).
Leismer’s current production is ~22,400 bbl/d (June) with ~50% of volumes attributed to newer vintage production (Pad L7 and L8). Strong new well performance, combined with effective use of non-condensable gas co-injection on mature pads, is resulting in a current steam oil ratio of 2.8x (June). The percentage of newer vintage production is expected to grow with the current development plans and underpins the assets low decline rate. Athabasca plans to grow Leismer’s production up to the facility’s oil handling capacity by maintaining its current capital cadence of approximately one sustaining pad per year. Leismer has regulatory approval for expansion to 40,000 bbl/d which would require debottlenecking the facility and drilling incremental well pairs.
Leismer has a significant Unrecovered Capital Balance of $1.6 billion which ensures a low Crown royalty framework as the asset is forecasted to remain pre-payout until 2028 (US$85 WTI, US$12.50 WCS differential).
Hangingstone
Bitumen production for the second quarter averaged 9,332 bbl/d. Reservoir performance continues to be supported by strong facility runtime and non-condensable gas co-injection which is aiding in pressure support and reduced energy usage. Hangingstone’s steam oil ratio has averaged 3.8x year to date.
In 2022, Hangingstone will have no capital allocation other than routine pump replacements. Strong operational performance, cost enhancements and improved commodity prices are driving competitive margins. The Hangingstone asset is expected to generate ~$130 million of Operating Income1 in 2022.
1 Pricing Assumptions: realized prices for H1 2022 and flat pricing of US$95 WTI, US$20 Western Canadian Select “WCS” heavy differential, C$5.50 AECO, and $0.775 C$/US$ FX for the balance of 2022.
Light Oil
Production averaged 6,479 boe/d (58% Liquids) for Q2 2022. The Light Oil division generated Operating Income of $38 million with a record Operating Netback of $64.77/boe. Capital expenditures were $1.2 million and included two facility turnarounds at Kaybob West and Kaybob East.
Placid Montney
At Greater Placid, production averaged 3,275 boe/d (42% Liquids) during the second quarter with an Operating Netback of $55.40/boe. Placid is positioned for flexible future development with an inventory of ~150 gross drilling locations and minimal near-term land retention requirements.
Kaybob Duvernay
At Greater Kaybob, production averaged 3,204 boe/d (74% Liquids) during the second quarter with an Operating Netback of $64.77/boe.
Three Duvernay wells in the oil window at Two Creeks were completed early in the year with IP90’s for the wells between 480 – 770 boe/d (averaging 610 boe/d, 96% Liquids). Athabasca’s prior 12 wells at Kaybob East and Two Creeks have average IP365s of ~550 boe/d (83% Liquids). Strong well results coupled with a large well inventory (~700 gross drilling locations) and flexible development timing is indicative of significant value to Athabasca.
The Kaybob area is supported by a strong Joint Development Agreement, established operated infrastructure and minimal near-term land retention requirements. The Company remains encouraged by competitor activity and recent new entrants into the play. Minimal capital activity is planned for the remainder of 2022 with operations focused on facility maintenance and readiness for future optionality.