Calgary, Alberta – Kelt Exploration Ltd. (TSX: KEL) (“Kelt” or the “Company”) reports its financial and operating results to shareholders for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022.
The Company’s financial results are summarized as follows:
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS | Three months ended September 30 |
Nine months ended September 30 |
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(CA$ thousands, except as otherwise indicated) | 2022 | 2021 | % | 2022 | 2021 | % | |
Petroleum and natural gas sales | 143,254 | 75,761 | 89 | 460,638 | 196,240 | 135 | |
Cash provided by operating activities | 85,104 | 46,547 | 83 | 242,280 | 107,658 | 125 | |
Adjusted funds from operations (1) | 65,189 | 36,336 | 79 | 234,141 | 93,239 | 151 | |
Basic ($/ common share) | 0.34 | 0.19 | 79 | 1.23 | 0.49 | 151 | |
Diluted ($/ common share) | 0.33 | 0.19 | 74 | 1.20 | 0.49 | 145 | |
Net income and comprehensive income | 23,089 | 3,752 | 515 | 104,520 | 61,260 | 71 | |
Basic ($/ common share) | 0.12 | 0.02 | 500 | 0.55 | 0.32 | 72 | |
Diluted ($/ common share) | 0.12 | 0.02 | 500 | 0.54 | 0.32 | 69 | |
Capital expenditures, net of A&D (1) | 76,181 | 71,162 | 7 | 248,946 | 146,393 | 70 | |
Total assets | 1,078,619 | 872,212 | 24 | 1,078,619 | 872,212 | 24 | |
Net debt (surplus) (1) | 33,537 | 28,174 | 19 | 33,537 | 28,174 | 19 | |
Shareholders’ equity | 845,103 | 668,561 | 26 | 845,103 | 668,561 | 26 | |
Weighted average shares outstanding (000s) | |||||||
Basic | 191,812 | 188,842 | 2 | 190,799 | 188,688 | 1 | |
Diluted | 196,118 | 191,092 | 3 | 195,159 | 190,299 | 3 |
(1) Refer to advisories regarding Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures
Financial Statements
Kelt’s unaudited consolidated interim financial statements and related notes for the quarter ended September 30, 2022 will be available to the public on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and will also be posted on the Company’s website at www.keltexploration.com on November 10, 2022.
Kelt’s operating results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2022 are summarized as follows:
OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS | Three months ended September 30 |
Nine months ended September 30 |
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(CA$ thousands, except as otherwise indicated) | 2022 | 2021 | % | 2022 | 2021 | % | |
Average daily production | |||||||
Oil (bbls/d) (2) | 5,192 | 4,485 | 16 | 5,378 | 4,041 | 33 | |
NGLs (bbls/d) | 3,906 | 3,004 | 30 | 4,242 | 3,120 | 36 | |
Gas (Mcf/d) | 100,158 | 72,789 | 38 | 104,078 | 73,195 | 42 | |
Combined (BOE/d) | 25,791 | 19,621 | 31 | 26,966 | 19,360 | 39 | |
Production per million common shares (BOE/d) | 134 | 104 | 29 | 141 | 103 | 37 | |
Net realized prices, before financial instruments (1) | |||||||
Oil ($/bbl) (2) | 115.92 | 82.35 | 41 | 120.92 | 75.71 | 60 | |
NGLs ($/bbl) | 63.59 | 42.45 | 50 | 69.60 | 36.51 | 91 | |
Gas ($/Mcf) | 6.38 | 4.32 | 48 | 6.68 | 3.68 | 73 | |
Operating netbacks ($/BOE) (1) | |||||||
Petroleum and natural gas sales (“P&NG sales”) | 60.38 | 41.97 | 44 | 62.57 | 37.13 | 69 | |
Cost of purchases | (2.64) | (0.60) | 340 | (1.76) | (0.87) | 102 | |
Combined net realized price, before financial instruments (1) | 57.74 | 41.37 | 40 | 60.81 | 36.26 | 68 | |
Realized loss on financial instruments | (8.77) | (3.04) | 188 | (8.26) | (1.93) | 328 | |
Combined net realized price, after financial instruments (1) | 48.97 | 38.33 | 28 | 52.55 | 34.33 | 53 | |
Royalties | (7.04) | (4.40) | 60 | (6.75) | (3.31) | 104 | |
Production expense | (10.52) | (9.24) | 14 | (9.98) | (8.77) | 14 | |
Transportation expense | (3.22) | (3.59) | -10 | (3.08) | (3.40) | -9 | |
Operating netback (1) | 28.19 | 21.10 | 34 | 32.74 | 18.85 | 74 | |
Land holdings | |||||||
Gross acres | 788,999 | 778,125 | 1 | 788,999 | 778,125 | 1 | |
Net acres | 572,937 | 563,687 | 2 | 572,937 | 563,687 | 2 |
(1) Refer to advisories regarding Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures
(2) “Oil” includes crude oil and field condensate
Message to Shareholders
Kelt’s average production for the three months ended September 30, 2022, was 25,791 BOE per day, up 31% from average production of 19,621 BOE per day during the corresponding period in 2021 and down 7% from average production of 27,713 BOE per day during the second quarter of 2022. Quarter-over-quarter production was down mainly due to downtime experienced at the TWM Pipestone Gas Plant where Kelt processes approximately 33.0 MMcf per day of raw gas and which was shut-in for approximately six weeks beginning on September 2, 2022, for its periodic (every 3-5 years) plant turnaround maintenance. In addition, during the third quarter of 2022, Kelt shut-in gas production intermittently when AECO and Station 2 prices were weak due to pipeline maintenance on the NGTL and T-South systems. This allowed Kelt to realize an average price of $6.38 per Mcf during the third quarter of 2022. Production for the three months ended September 30, 2022, was weighted 35% oil and NGLs and 65% gas.
Kelt’s realized average oil price during the third quarter of 2022 was $115.92 per barrel, up 41% from $82.35 per barrel in the third quarter of 2021. The realized average NGLs price during the third quarter of 2022 was $63.59 per barrel, up 50% from $42.45 per barrel in the same quarter of 2021. Kelt’s realized average gas price for the third quarter of 2022 was $6.38 per Mcf, up 48% from $4.32 per Mcf in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
For the three months ended September 30, 2022, petroleum and natural gas sales were $143.3 million and adjusted funds from operations was $65.2 million ($0.33 per share, diluted), compared to $75.8 million and $36.3 million ($0.19 per share, diluted) respectively, in the third quarter of 2021. On September 30, 2022, net debt was $33.5 million or 0.1 times annualized third quarter adjusted funds from operations.
Net capital expenditures incurred during the three months ended September 30, 2022, were $76.2 million. During the third quarter of 2022, the Company spent $52.8 million on drill and complete operations and $21.9 million on facilities, pipelines, and equipment.
In its Oak/Flatrock Division, Kelt drilled an Upper Montney well from an existing pad site during the quarter and commenced drilling a second well off the same pad site. A third well was drilled during October on the southern part of its land block.
At its Pouce Coupe/Progress/Spirit River Division, Kelt was very active in its Charlie Lake play where the Company drilled a six well development program at Spirit River. These wells are expected to be completed and tied-in by the end of the year.
In the Wembley/Pipestone Division, Kelt completed its first Charlie Lake well (60% working interest) and expects to follow-up with additional drilling on adjacent lands in the Charlie Lake formation in 2023. During the first two weeks on-stream, based on operating hours, the well (gross at 100%) produced approximately 828 barrels of oil per day and approximately 2.0 MMcf per day of associated raw gas.
After an active Montney drilling program and pipeline construction at Wembley/ Pipestone, Kelt is currently either restricting production from certain wells or has shut-in production from certain wells in the area due to third-party gas processing congestion. These limitations are expected to be alleviated with cooler weather and resulting improvements in plant efficiencies. In addition, Kelt’s access to incremental gas processing capacity is expected to increase as the Company has entered into definitive gas processing arrangements with certain midstream companies that are currently either building a new gas processing plant or expanding an existing gas processing plant in the area.
Kelt has entered into an agreement to process 25.0 MMcf per day of raw gas at a third party operated Pipestone area facility that is expected to be onstream by the end of 2023. In addition, the Company has entered into an agreement to be a major tenant at the proposed 150.0 MMcf per day CSV Midstream Solutions Albright Sour Gas Processing Facility (“Albright”) that is expected to be constructed by the end of 2024. Kelt will have access to 50.0 MMcf per day of raw gas processing upon start-up of Albright and an incremental 20.0 MMcf per day of raw gas processing capacity after five years from start-up. The design for this plant includes sulphur recovery capability which Kelt expects will enhance its oil and gas revenue stream through incremental sales of sulphur.
Kelt expects to spend $300.0 million in its capital expenditure program for 2022. Production is forecasted to average between 27,500 and 28,500 BOE per day, an increase of between 31% and 36% from average production of 20,987 BOE per day in 2021. Production guidance for 2022 has been reduced from previous guidance of 28,500 to 29,500 BOE per day to account for the shut-in production described earlier in this news release. Adjusted funds from operations for 2022 is forecasted to be $325.0 million or 8% greater than the Company’s planned 2022 capital expenditure program. Kelt will continue to maintain its strong financial position. On December 31, 2022, the Company expects to have a net surplus of $5.0 million.
2023 Budget
The Company’s Board of Directors has approved an initial capital expenditure budget of $310.0 million for 2023. Kelt expects to drill 35 gross (34.0 net) wells in 2023 and expects to complete 36 gross (35.0 net) wells in 2023. The 2023 capital expenditures are expected to be allocated as follows: $220.0 million for drilling and completing wells, $70.0 million for facilities, pipeline, and equipment and $20.0 million for land and seismic.
The Company has taken a conservative approach to estimating 2023 commodity prices and is basing its 2023 financial forecasts on commodity prices that are lower than current futures strip prices. Preparation of the 2023 budget includes the following forecasted average commodity price assumptions (with estimated average forecasted 2022 commodity prices shown for comparative purposes):
Commodity Index | 2023 Budget | 2022 Forecast | Change |
WTI Crude Oil (USD/bbl) | 78.00 | 94.50 | (17%) |
MSW Crude Oil (CAD/bbl) | 99.90 | 120.00 | (17%) |
NYMEX Henry Hub L3D Natural Gas (USD/MMBtu) | 5.00 | 6.40 | (22%) |
DAWN Gas Daily Index (USD/MMBtu) | 4.90 | 6.10 | (20%) |
AECO NIT 5A Gas Daily Index (CAD/GJ) | 4.30 | 4.90 | (12%) |
STATION 2 Gas Daily Index (CAD/GJ) | 4.20 | 4.55 | (8%) |
Exchange Rate (USD/CAD) | 0.741 | 0.769 | (4%) |
Exchange Rate (CAD/USD) | 1.350 | 1.300 | 4% |
Financial and operating highlights for the Company’s 2023 budget plan compared to its 2022 forecast are highlighted in the table below:
Financial and Operating Highlights ($ MM, unless otherwise specified) |
2023 Budget | 2022 Forecast | Change |
Production | |||
Oil & NGLs (bbls/d) | 11,700 – 12,900 | 9,900 – 10,500 | 15% – 26% |
Gas (MMcf/d) | 127.8 – 132.6 | 105.6 – 108.0 | 20% – 24% |
Combined (BOE/d) | 33,000 – 35,000 | 27,500 – 28,500 | 18% – 25% |
P&NG Sales | 607.0 | 617.0 | (2%) |
Adjusted Funds from Operations | 338.0 | 325.0 | 4% |
AFFO per share, diluted ($/share) | 1.71 | 1.66 | 3% |
Capital Expenditures, net of A&D | 310.0 | 300.0 | 3% |
Net Debt (Surplus), at year-end | (28.0) | (5.0) | 460% |
The Company retains the flexibility to either increase or decrease capital spending plans accordingly.
Management looks forward to updating shareholders with 2022 year-end results on or about March 3, 2023.
Changes in forecasted commodity prices and variances in production estimates can have a significant impact on estimated funds from operations and profit. Please refer to the advisories regarding forward-looking statements and to the cautionary statement below.
The information set out herein is “financial outlook” within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The purpose of this financial outlook is to provide readers with disclosure regarding Kelt’s reasonable expectations as to the anticipated results of its proposed business activities for the calendar year 2022 and 2023. Readers are cautioned that this financial outlook may not be appropriate for other purposes.