Market concerns about global growth may have been excessive this week as there is no evidence of an imminent U.S. recession, a co-founder of consultancy Energy Aspects said on Friday.
“Overall, we do not believe the global economy is on the verge of a sudden downshift,” said Amrita Sen, director of research at Energy Aspects, noting that disappointing Chinese growth and signs of a U.S. slowdown had made policymakers hesitant in both countries.
“I don’t think what we saw on Monday is a one-off,” Sen told the Reuters Global Markets Forum, referring to the brutal sell-off earlier this week triggered by an unwinding of yen-funded trades. “We will likely get a few more rounds of macro meltdowns, but oil’s own fundamentals are stable.”
Global shares extended gains on Friday to erase nearly all their losses from this week’s sell-off. Brent prices, on course for a weekly gain of more than 3%, had begun the week down more than 18% from their April highs.
Energy Aspects forecasts 2024 oil demand growing at 1 million barrels per day (bpd) over last year, which she said was a similar rate to previous years of global slowdowns.
In the near-term, the market will stay focused on demand, which will not come “roaring back” thanks to the weak Chinese economy, she said.
In 2025, crude supply from countries not in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is set to grow by 1.4 million bpd year-on-year, while demand is set to increase by 1.2 million bpd, she said.
If non-OPEC supply disappoints, there would be enough stockpile to provide cover, Sen added.
“OPEC may choose to delay bringing back the barrels they have outlined, but either way it is a balanced market with ample spare capacity,” Sen said.
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(Reporting by Divya Chowdhury in Mumbai; Editing by Richard Chang)