U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 4% to a five-month high on Wednesday on forecasts for colder weather over the next two weeks than previously expected, which should cause utilities to start pulling gas out of storage to meet rising heating demand around the U.S. Thanksgiving day holiday next week.
In addition, the amount of gas flowing to the country’s liquefied natural gas export plants was on track to rise to a 10-month high on Wednesday as feedgas to Venture Global LNG’s Plaquemines plant under construction in Louisiana rose to a record high.
Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10.4 cents, or 3.5%, to $3.102 per million British thermal units at 9 a.m. EST (1400 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since June 11.
That also puts the front-month on track to rise for a fourth day in a row for the first time since mid August.
Those gains in gas prices have cut the oil-to-gas ratio to its lowest since January, which could prompt energy firms to drill for more gas and less oil.
The oil-to-gas ratio, or the level at which oil trades compared with gas, fell to 23-to-1 on Wednesday. On an energy equivalent basis, oil should only trade six times over gas.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 100.7 billion cubic feet per day so far in November, down from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by about 1.3 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary one-week low of 101.0 bcfd on Wednesday. Analysts have noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
On an annual basis, output remained on track to decline in 2024 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic cut demand in 2020.
That’s because many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March, and have remained soft since then.
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly near normal through Dec. 5, except for some colder-than-normal days from Nov. 28-Dec. 2.
With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 108.4 bcfd this week to 116.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG’s outlook on Tuesday.
The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.5 bcfd so far in November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, feedgas was on track to jump to a 10-month high of 14.5 bcfd on Wednesday, up from 14.1 bcfd on Tuesday, as flows to Plaquemines rose to a record high of around 50 million cubic feet per day for a second day in a row. That compares with an all-time daily feedgas high of 15.2 bcfd on Dec. 17, 2023, according to LSEG data.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino)