OPEC+ is likely to adhere to current plans to raise output gradually from April when a panel of top ministers meets on Monday, delegates from the producer group told Reuters, despite U.S. President Donald Trump urging OPEC to lower prices.
Four OPEC+ sources said Monday’s meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, set to begin at 1300 GMT, was unlikely to recommend that OPEC+ increases output more than already planned. All sources declined to be identified by name.
The meeting comes after U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, America’s top trading partners, in a move that has roiled financial markets and on Monday, given oil prices some support.
“We think the intention remains to stay the course,” said RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft in a note.
“We do suspect there will be a delicate diplomatic dance to ensure that the organization and various member states are not on the receiving end of retaliatory ire,” she added.
Concern about the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia pushed oil prices to $83 a barrel on Jan. 15, the highest since August. Prices have since slipped below $77, although they were up on Monday as the tariffs raised concerns over supply disruption.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, or OPEC+, is cutting output by 5.85 million barrels per day (bpd), equal to about 5.7% of global supply, agreed in a series of steps since 2022.
In December, OPEC+ extended its latest layer of cuts through the first quarter of 2025, pushing back a plan to begin raising output to April. The extension was the latest of several delays due to weak demand and rising supply outside the group.
Based on that plan, the unwinding of 2.2 million bpd of cuts – the most recent layer – and the start of an increase for the United Arab Emirates, begins in April with a monthly rise of 138,000 bpd, according to Reuters calculations. The hikes will last until September 2026.
(Reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Maha El Dahan, Olesya Astakhova and Alex Lawler; Editing by Bernadette Baum)