OPEC on Wednesday stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2025, saying air and road travel would support consumption and potential trade tariffs were not expected to impact economic growth.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a monthly report, said world oil demand will rise by 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and by 1.43 million bpd in 2026. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month.
OPEC’s view on oil demand is at the higher end of industry forecasts and it expects oil use to keep rising in coming years, unlike the International Energy Agency which see demand peaking this decade as the world switches to cleaner fuels.
In the report, OPEC said the trade policy of President Donald Trump’s new U.S. administration has added more uncertainty into markets, potentially creating supply-demand imbalances that are not reflective of market fundamentals, but it made no change to its 2025 economic growth forecast.
“It remains to be seen how and to what extent potential tariffs and other policy measures will play out,” OPEC said in the report. “So far, they are not anticipated to materially impact the current underlying growth assumptions.”
Oil was steady after the OPEC report was released with Brent crude trading lower towards $76 a barrel.
The IEA sees 2025 demand growth at 1.05 million bpd, lower than OPEC, although the gap between the two on 2025 is much smaller than it was for 2024 when the split reached a record high driven by differences over the pace of the energy transition.
OPEC+, which groups OPEC and allies such as Russia, has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support the market. Its current plan calls for oil output to be gradually increased from April.
(Reporting by Alex Lawler;Editing by Elaine Hardcastle Editing by Tomasz Janowski)