U.S. natural gas output and demand will both peak in 2032, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) on Tuesday.
The EIA projected that in 2032, dry gas production will reach 119.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) and demand will reach 92.4 bcfd.
That compares with current record highs of 103.6 bcfd in 2023 for output and 90.5 bcfd in 2024 for demand.
Looking further out, output will ease to 112.9 bcfd in 2040 and edge back up to 115.2 bcfd in 2050, while demand is expected to fall to 80.7 bcfd in 2040 before rising to 82.6 bcfd in 2050.
The EIA forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would rise from a record 11.9 bcfd in 2024 to 15.2 bcfd in 2025, 21.5 bcfd in 2030 and 26.8 bcfd in 2040 before easing to 26.7 bcfd in 2050.
The EIA projected gas sales would rise to highs of 13.3 bcfd for residential consumers in 2028, 9.9 bcfd for commercial customers in 2050 and 27.2 bcfd for industrial customers in 2050, but decline in most years to 23.0 bcfd for power generation in 2050.
That compares with current all-time highs of 14.3 bcfd in 1996 for residential consumers, 9.6 bcfd in 2019 for commercial customers, 23.8 bcfd in 1973 for industrial customers and 36.9 bcfd in 2024 for power generation.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Franklin Paul and Marguerita Choy)