China’s total oil demand including all products is set to peak in 2027, with a rise of about 100,000 barrels per day this year driven by increased volumes from the petrochemicals sector, a state oil researcher said on Monday.
Surging usage of electric vehicles in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, is eroding fuel demand, with use of EVs poised to replace at least 25 million metric tons of gasoline (582,000 barrels per day) this year, the researcher said.
The country’s independent “teapot” refiners are operating at 45% of capacity this year, down from 60% last year and 70% in 2023, the researcher said at the APPEC energy and petrochemicals conference in Singapore.
China’s petrochemicals demand will not peak before 2050, the researcher said, with ethylene demand growing 8% this year and propylene demand rising 7%.
Another state researcher at the same event said liquefied natural gas (LNG) use in heavy trucks would replace 38 million tons of diesel (775,000 bpd) by 2030.
Oil demand for petrochemicals feedstock will reach 230 million tons a year by 2030, the second researcher said.
(Reporting by Chen Aizhu, Trixie Yap and Florence Tan; Writing by Tony Munroe; Editing by Sonali Paul and Helen Popper)