U.S. natural gas output and demand will both rise to record highs in 2025 before sliding in 2026, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday.
EIA projected that dry gas production will rise from 103.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2024 to 106.6 bcfd in 2025 before sliding to 106.0 bcfd in 2026. That compares with a record 103.6 bcfd in 2023.
The agency also projected that domestic gas consumption would rise from a record 90.5 bcfd in 2024 to 91.5 bcfd in 2025 before easing to 91.4 bcfd in 2026.
The September projections for 2025 were higher than EIA’s forecasts in August for 106.4 bcfd production and 91.4 bcfd demand. The EIA said it expects rising gas prices and falling oil prices in 2026, which should bring crude oil to its lowest premium to gas since 2005.
As a result, the agency said it expects drilling activity in the U.S. in 2026 to be more centered in gas-intensive producing regions.
The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would rise to 14.7 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026 from a record 11.9 bcfd in 2024.
With power generators expected to burn more coal this year than in 2024, the EIA projected U.S. coal production would rise from 512.1 million short tons in 2024, the lowest since 1964, to 521.9 million tons in 2025 before falling to 492.5 million tons in 2026, the lowest since 1963.
EIA projected carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels would rise from a four-year low of 4.777 billion metric tons in 2024 to 4.849 billion metric tons in 2025 as oil, coal and gas use increases, before easing to 4.826 billion metric tons in 2026 as oil and coal use declines.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Mark Porter and David Gregorio)